brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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to be honest, I think that some of the source region stuff is a bit overrated. yes, we would prefer Canada to be cold, but that is usually not the case in El Ninos, even the prolific ones. for example, look at Feb 2010! there was +10-15C air right over SE Canada. made no difference. same with Feb 1987, Canada is torched
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“actually Nunavut is gonna be +20 so nobody cares if it’s -1 along the EC” as it’s literally snowing
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yeah, you’re probably correct there. those years usually don’t have amazing Pacific patterns
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i can pretty much guarantee that if we see a strong -NAO there could be a prolific period as long as the Pacific isn’t absolute garbage. we are seeing a strong STJ and zero indication of any persistent SE ridging
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what’s interesting is that the central Canadian ridge actually leads to HP in a good spot since it leads to NVA aloft. so, it can provide confluence even if it’s in an unorthodox way
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GEFS looks interesting after Christmas. nice western ridge, strong central Canadian ridge, and a potent SS vort
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first larger storm signal this year? looks potent
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nice seeing a deep SE trough showing up on ENS for the end of the month
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not yet, but still a pretty big shift nonetheless
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amwx attachment policy isn’t a fan of that
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yeah this works
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this will do also that’s also the whole thing about Canada torching. the +20F air up there is like -4F here
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personally, I was expecting the GFS and CMC to hold serve and for the ECMWF to get way flatter. this morning surprised me
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if the ECMWF holds and everything remains like this at 00z, then probably. that trend in the CMC and GFS is pretty sharp
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GEPS made a significant shift in the right direction
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you’re not. pretty distinct trend here
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that NS vort is becoming more and more interesting
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there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off
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there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off
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the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z
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also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now
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overall I think the main takeaway is that it is so much easier to get a favorable pattern than it is during a Nina, lemme tell you
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it's probably going to be that way, but it'll get there
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yeah, weeklies are loaded. Arctic looks great
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GEFS and GEPS are both seeing the changes in the Pacific. seems like it's gaining traction
