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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
  2. NorthArlington101
    It’s a massive shift
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    I'm doing this as a service -- won't even see the snow. Please, don't call me a hero.
  5. NorthArlington101
    It's a tick NW
  6. NorthArlington101
  7. NorthArlington101
    the snow mean for DCA jumped from .69" to 5.28", lol.
  8. NorthArlington101
    bump
  9. NorthArlington101
  10. NorthArlington101
    think DT lives in Cville now - don’t think he’s mad that the storm is moving NW a bit. Thought his tweet about setting reasonable expectations was actually… reasonable.
  11. NorthArlington101
    it moved the only decent part of the storm northward for you and maybe slowly caved to the other models? I’d take it. If you want the non-Kuchera to imagine a better shift in the future, go for it.
  12. NorthArlington101
    It’s a step in the right direction.
  13. NorthArlington101
    I could be wrong, but I don’t think I’d like snow nearly as much in a place that gets it usually. It’s sorta important it feels like home. But I might change my mind under a lake effect snow band in the future!
  14. NorthArlington101
    Realistically, Tuesday. I’ve tentatively explored flights for tomorrow if things were to shift fully forwards a GFS-esque event overnight but I’m probably not willing to make the $500 investment. Probably.
  15. NorthArlington101
    The GEFS sucks, but this is impressive for a 24 hour mean.
  16. NorthArlington101
    I’ll come clean: I’m rooting for a fail since I’m not in Virginia to see this one out.
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    I’d take more from the NAM inside 48 than the extended HRRR
  19. NorthArlington101
    That was last February IIRC - first storm missed north, second storm trended north but didn’t get much past Cville (which was okay with me at the time)
  20. NorthArlington101
    At least we can feel confident it’ll be sleeting in Williamsburg
  21. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been casually browsing flights tomorrow from San Juan to the DC area just in case it looks more likely it’ll snow Monday. I might have a serious problem, haha.
  22. NorthArlington101
    I’m sure this is a point that has been echoed by many before, but the fact that we have so much guidance at this point only muddies the waters. So many possible outcomes and scenarios that all feel legitimate… you trick yourself into thinking that the 48hr HRRR could be right just once. That said, the NAM looks to be against the growing consensus. I wouldn’t be fretting too much in SEVA over it, though it’s a flag.
  23. NorthArlington101
    I don’t think we’ll ever see a WSW out of this one, even for RIC, imo. AKQ is a cautious office and you have to dismiss the 5”+ runs as outliers, especially given the reality that rain is preceding the storm and temps are cooperative enough but not frigid.
  24. NorthArlington101
    FWIW (probably fairly little), here are the latest ENS runs for our Monday threat.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Anyone know anything about the FV3 Hi-Res? Does it run off the same core/physics/whatever the term is as the current GFS? They couldn’t look more different on the surface.
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