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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Almost trended towards looking like a usable piece of guidance. I remember it having a cold bias previously... it and the HDRPS surely have a constant issue with overdoing banding/QPF. Noticed it in the summer too.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Closer
  3. NorthArlington101
    For sure - if I was gambling on a northern/more amped trend, I’d take the 12z by a mile.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Honestly, EURO looks very much like the UKIE. Reminds me of the days where the UKIE would seem to be fairly predictive of its European cousin.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Making no statement on the H5/how close it is to something better: 00z actually had more snow for the DC/NOVA area than 12z. Compared to 6z, this run is pretty similar with the difference of a slightly more robust northern shield that goes thru Charlottesville and just being better organized, leading to a tighter looking/more intense snow band.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Holds rather steady from 06z. Good storm for the Tidewater.
  7. NorthArlington101
    I’ll try my hand — seeing some fairly marked differences between the GFS/CMC and EURO through hr63. Don’t think it’ll get there this time.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Good discussion between Webb/Ant. Most of it goes over my head but for the interested:
  9. NorthArlington101
    Based on snowfall maps alone, UKIE took a step in the right direction from 00z to 12z but keeps anything substantive closer to the Tidewater.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Giggling a bit toggling the last two CMC runs. Just minor adjustments from our weather models ~3 days out.
  11. NorthArlington101
    If this event somehow works out, ya’ll owe me for taking this trip to Puerto Rico. I’ll drop my Venmo and you can all send me a fiver.
  12. NorthArlington101
    12z CMC looks like a hit looking at the maps on Pivotal.
  13. NorthArlington101
    I wouldn’t get excited if I was in the tidewater, either. GFS/RGEM being the only things that show substantial accumulation is iffy, IMO. Especially how heavy it shows it and with this being a rain/snow flaky situation. Not quite sure how models resolve when the changeover occurs.
  14. NorthArlington101
    So sorry to hear that - my thoughts are with you and your family.
  15. NorthArlington101
    this do?
  16. NorthArlington101
    Slightly further SE
  17. NorthArlington101
    EURO took maybe a slightly more NW jog, I can’t see many changes at 500mb but I’m hardly a pro. Surface map.
  18. NorthArlington101
    pretty sure it’s 6:45/6:50, fwiw
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    Casual 12” in 6 hours down the mouth of the Potomac verbatim. Probably a red flag, honestly. Good luck to everyone, though! Cheering you on from Puerto Rico. Would make sense if it snowed while I was away, I’m a notorious jinx.
  21. NorthArlington101
    That’s a pretty absurd panel, lol.
  22. NorthArlington101
    (At least) one more picture, then I’ll stop taunting ya’ll. 84 degrees and unbelievably pleasant.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Giving up on snow for now…
  24. NorthArlington101
    I think I’ve forgotten what a coating of snow looks like… 40 and doing nothing in Arlington.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Both have to be better then Baker!
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