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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Realistically, Tuesday. I’ve tentatively explored flights for tomorrow if things were to shift fully forwards a GFS-esque event overnight but I’m probably not willing to make the $500 investment. Probably.
  2. NorthArlington101
    The GEFS sucks, but this is impressive for a 24 hour mean.
  3. NorthArlington101
    I’ll come clean: I’m rooting for a fail since I’m not in Virginia to see this one out.
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    I’d take more from the NAM inside 48 than the extended HRRR
  6. NorthArlington101
    That was last February IIRC - first storm missed north, second storm trended north but didn’t get much past Cville (which was okay with me at the time)
  7. NorthArlington101
    At least we can feel confident it’ll be sleeting in Williamsburg
  8. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been casually browsing flights tomorrow from San Juan to the DC area just in case it looks more likely it’ll snow Monday. I might have a serious problem, haha.
  9. NorthArlington101
    I’m sure this is a point that has been echoed by many before, but the fact that we have so much guidance at this point only muddies the waters. So many possible outcomes and scenarios that all feel legitimate… you trick yourself into thinking that the 48hr HRRR could be right just once. That said, the NAM looks to be against the growing consensus. I wouldn’t be fretting too much in SEVA over it, though it’s a flag.
  10. NorthArlington101
    I don’t think we’ll ever see a WSW out of this one, even for RIC, imo. AKQ is a cautious office and you have to dismiss the 5”+ runs as outliers, especially given the reality that rain is preceding the storm and temps are cooperative enough but not frigid.
  11. NorthArlington101
    FWIW (probably fairly little), here are the latest ENS runs for our Monday threat.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Anyone know anything about the FV3 Hi-Res? Does it run off the same core/physics/whatever the term is as the current GFS? They couldn’t look more different on the surface.
  13. NorthArlington101
    I’ll take the under
  14. NorthArlington101
    Frankly adding that second map half refuted my nice post earlier: not much of a consensus within the GEFS, lol. Guess that’s what a blend is for, but hardly makes you confident in any outcome.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Mean is relatively similar to that of above but a slight tick better. For comparison…
  16. NorthArlington101
    One more post before I allow myself to enjoy my New Year's Eve and not track a storm I won't be in Virginia for: the GEFS/EPS look pretty similar. If I was setting expectations and was currently in Arlington, I'd allow myself to be hopeful but take the ensemble blend and see a pretty likely outcome. YMMV.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Almost trended towards looking like a usable piece of guidance. I remember it having a cold bias previously... it and the HDRPS surely have a constant issue with overdoing banding/QPF. Noticed it in the summer too.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Closer
  19. NorthArlington101
    For sure - if I was gambling on a northern/more amped trend, I’d take the 12z by a mile.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Honestly, EURO looks very much like the UKIE. Reminds me of the days where the UKIE would seem to be fairly predictive of its European cousin.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Making no statement on the H5/how close it is to something better: 00z actually had more snow for the DC/NOVA area than 12z. Compared to 6z, this run is pretty similar with the difference of a slightly more robust northern shield that goes thru Charlottesville and just being better organized, leading to a tighter looking/more intense snow band.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Holds rather steady from 06z. Good storm for the Tidewater.
  23. NorthArlington101
    I’ll try my hand — seeing some fairly marked differences between the GFS/CMC and EURO through hr63. Don’t think it’ll get there this time.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Good discussion between Webb/Ant. Most of it goes over my head but for the interested:
  25. NorthArlington101
    Based on snowfall maps alone, UKIE took a step in the right direction from 00z to 12z but keeps anything substantive closer to the Tidewater.
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