NorthArlington101

GEFS took a positive jump. vs 12z

Made a separate thread for the Friday deal just to separate productive LR discussion from discussion of our likely cloudy Friday.

Game on. Let's separate discussion from the true LR to an event that is now firmly in the short-run. Creating a thread can't make it any worse.

not really our subforum but this is worth memorializing

the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

GFS took a solid jump north... it’s close for Central VA. Might make a thread if the 18z NAM looks decent to at least separate this event and the LR chat.

Casual run-to-run shifts on the CMC. No biggie.

I'm not really qualified to make this post, but here is my attempt at extremely informal analysis. Only doing this because I've been interested in this storm and this storm is low stakes so if I'm wrong it can hopefully be a teaching moment rather than me being burnt at the stake. Please correct me if I'm wrong -- its very likely I could be. I think (and if this is wrong ignore the whole post) what made the 18z ICON such a wacky/promising run was that the vort digs more over Tennessee. Looking at the 00z run, you can see the ICON backs off on this dig a decent bit, which obviously sucks. That said, the 00z GFS made positive steps in that direction and have been for some time now. 00z GFS: NAM is too long-range to really look at but I didn't hate how it shifted from 18z to 00z either. I don't necessarily know what I'm talking about, but I don't hate the progress we've made today. I'm obviously slightly more optimistic than others because Charlottesville is a better spot to be in here than somewhere in NOVA or N MD, but I think this is worth a look still.

Yep, I'll take any little positive trend I can get. Flurries are definitely a win. Verbatim it shows the second biggest event of the year in Charlottesville actually lol.

North Carolina clearly deserves it more than we do all that said, it was a big shift in the right direction. I’d take one more of those

I realize that I'm tracking what is almost certainty a loser but the 12z EPS was a step up based on raw mean snowfall. I'll let someone else (if they still care) do a better analysis to find out why. 12z: 06z:

lock it in

Pretty substantial run-to-run shift. I’m definitely interested.

Should’ve prefaced I only care about Charlottesville

meh

I'll always be so thankful that I got to spend my first year at UVA with our basketball team winning the NCAA Championship... little else can raise the spirits of a school in that way. So much fun.

agreed. 1 seeds can be scary. Never know when those 16 seeds are gonna show up. Source: UVA fan

I missed this event while I was on vacation. One of my biggest snow-related regrets.

Agreed. I hopped on this train yesterday... something about this one seems right for some reason. No idea why. I was hoping the 12z EPS would’ve been good enough to share today, but it wasn’t. Like two good storms in the whole suite. Had a bit of a southern max though, which is always nice to see.

That’s a pretty weenie run for this far out given what we’ve seen this winter. I’m gonna go down sinking with this ship.

GEFS for 12z jumped up fairly significantly in its average for the next 10 days (about 1.5" across the board) I still kinda like next Friday/Saturday just from a gut feeling potential. Quite the array of solutions here, enough to get me looking at WxBell every once in awhile.

Prefacing this with no scientific reasoning but I kinda like the “chance” next Friday. Something feels right about it. Maybe I’ll look at WxBell for the first time in a month... what a waste of a subscription this year.

Couple flurries driving up Route 29

Did we just have our biggest event of the year? I totally missed this one.