NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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Not actually in the city proper - hanging out in a resort for good beach time. But seriously reconsidering.
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San Juan. It would be challenging. And crazy. And unlikely to be smooth. But maybe.
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Smart guy. Not the messiah but I appreciate his takes. Getting very serious about looking for a flight to the DC area tomorrow.
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It’s a massive shift
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I'm doing this as a service -- won't even see the snow. Please, don't call me a hero.
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It's a tick NW
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the snow mean for DCA jumped from .69" to 5.28", lol.
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bump
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think DT lives in Cville now - don’t think he’s mad that the storm is moving NW a bit. Thought his tweet about setting reasonable expectations was actually… reasonable.
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it moved the only decent part of the storm northward for you and maybe slowly caved to the other models? I’d take it. If you want the non-Kuchera to imagine a better shift in the future, go for it.
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It’s a step in the right direction.
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I could be wrong, but I don’t think I’d like snow nearly as much in a place that gets it usually. It’s sorta important it feels like home. But I might change my mind under a lake effect snow band in the future!
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Realistically, Tuesday. I’ve tentatively explored flights for tomorrow if things were to shift fully forwards a GFS-esque event overnight but I’m probably not willing to make the $500 investment. Probably.
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January Medium/Long Range Discussion
NorthArlington101 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The GEFS sucks, but this is impressive for a 24 hour mean. -
I’ll come clean: I’m rooting for a fail since I’m not in Virginia to see this one out.
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I’d take more from the NAM inside 48 than the extended HRRR
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That was last February IIRC - first storm missed north, second storm trended north but didn’t get much past Cville (which was okay with me at the time)
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At least we can feel confident it’ll be sleeting in Williamsburg
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I’ve been casually browsing flights tomorrow from San Juan to the DC area just in case it looks more likely it’ll snow Monday. I might have a serious problem, haha.
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I’m sure this is a point that has been echoed by many before, but the fact that we have so much guidance at this point only muddies the waters. So many possible outcomes and scenarios that all feel legitimate… you trick yourself into thinking that the 48hr HRRR could be right just once. That said, the NAM looks to be against the growing consensus. I wouldn’t be fretting too much in SEVA over it, though it’s a flag.
