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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Nice GIF/analysis from Webb. Wouldn’t mind it trending a *little* more south.
  2. NorthArlington101
  3. NorthArlington101
    00z NAM (yes, I know) is also looking too weak and suppressed to amount to much.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Suppressed?
  5. NorthArlington101
    Of course I don’t actually believe it has impact on the weather. But it also does.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Pretty substantial run-to-run shift. 12z 18z
  7. NorthArlington101
    Moving this here -- I like having one sooner (like 3 days out) rather than later just to better archive discussion. It's fun reading back on old events/seeing old model runs and that's hard when it's all in one LR thread. That said, it's a proven jinx so it should've be done until the short-range, which we aren't in yet.
  8. NorthArlington101
    We’re close. Maybe 3 days out…
  9. NorthArlington101
    Pretty sure you swim club - if you haven’t figured it out yet, unless you are like truly exceptional, you are probably gonna be dropping time maybe 4x a year in your best events. Being close to your time at a high school meet is all you can really ask for, lol. Conditions are not ideal and you aren’t close to tapered.
  10. NorthArlington101
    The GEPS (minus P03, I suppose) promises wintery weather next Wednesday. If this fails... blame Canada!
  11. NorthArlington101
    Long as we ignore the 18z run - sorta actually it was kinda close
  12. NorthArlington101
    scrolled to the 06z run and thought it was a massive improvement snowmap wise — went back to 00z and it’s about the same if not slightly worse, though the 12z gives some more wiggle room. still, provides a fair bit of hope. Lot of models with a good stripe through the area, sorta feast-or-famine though.
  13. NorthArlington101
    I don't have your elephant memory but it's the best run of the past few cycles - seems the way we win here is more suppressed and somewhat strung out rather than a massive storm that lucks out, though I would like to see exactly how the UKIE pulled it off.
  14. NorthArlington101
    EURO is a step in the right direction. We can pretend that satisfies us and move on
  15. NorthArlington101
    Not to dissuade people from subscribing since they deserve it, but adblockers do the job well.
  16. NorthArlington101
    probably, but the UKIE and GEFS look decently wintry, as does (your favorite model) the ICON. Almost sounds like a consensus when you put it like that. Almost.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Pretty substantial change from 00z.
  18. NorthArlington101
    didn’t we just see a tweet from someone talking about how the CMC was one of the better global models at this point? either way, the icon is on board to, so we are set
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    CMC is delayed but again more suppressed. Snow spreading through Central VA with the mix line not looking too far behind at hr126. mix line stays south of CHO through hr132. This is gonna be a nice run (for out first storm)
  21. NorthArlington101
    I'll stop posting individual shots of the GEFS after this, but it's fair to say that most members look very different than the 12z OP run --- generally weaker and more suppressed + earlier with the storm but wintrier as a result. Happens pretty rarely that there is such disagreement from what I've seen, so consider me invested.
  22. NorthArlington101
    GEFS rolling in more wintry -- the members that get precip in by Tuesday seem to want to start it as ice/wintry mix for at least parts of the subforum.
  23. NorthArlington101
    12z ICON still spits out a very interesting result for much of the subforum. Doesn't show wintry mix but with temps it's very close for most, snow for much of D.C. north, ice out west. Little colder towards game time and it's a money run. Hope to get more people on the ICON train this year. Would be a good way for it to prove itself.
  24. NorthArlington101
    8:30 is super late -- that sucks. My last tidbit of advice would be to just make sure not to burn all your energy on the first race. It might look impressive but it's a swim meet - part of what you are there to learn is how to maintain enough energy to compete in each race. That said, I'm sure you are in shape enough to rock a 50fr after the 500 -- you could probably rock a solid 50fr after swimming the mile.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Digital ice thread?
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