Regarding Tuesday's storm (threat), seems like our best chance is definitely something weird happening on the backend -- not sure exactly what that is (CCB might be the term I'm looking for) but it's how the ens members that do, both EPS and GEFS, get us somewhere. For those with GEFS access, p29 looks nearly identical to the 12z EURO run 2 days ago.
Probably a 1-1000 shot, but why not keep an eye on it anyway?