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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Never gets below above freezing in CHO
  2. NorthArlington101
    WxBell looks rather different, FWIW.
  3. NorthArlington101
    12z 00z
  4. NorthArlington101
    Pretty sweet.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I think you missed the numerous caveats I gave I the first sentence. Not much to do 5-6 days in advance but discuss the model runs… I find it fun to look at the micro level. Anyways… EPS is looking nice. Details to come.
  6. NorthArlington101
    I'm debating details that ultimately won't matter in 12 hours (and details that the EURO cant be trusted to get right), but the EURO pushes temps at DCA to 37 by hour 141 with driving rain. Temps recover a bit for the deform band and would surely recover some snow out of it but verbatim that's pretty close to a cliff jumper run for those in the Beltway compared to the deck pics you (and me in CHO, if that verifies) would post.
  7. NorthArlington101
    For real -- this storm has had too many moving pieces not to shift around further but the consensus among the Top 3 globals is remarkable. If we all lived 75 miles west we'd be honking the "big ones lock in early" weenism. Control matches the OP.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Pulled out the old CIPS analogs tool. Doesn't look terrible.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Gotta say, that's a heckuva consensus. Storing this here just for fun.
  10. NorthArlington101
    the map I posted above includes it, for those wondering.
  11. NorthArlington101
  12. NorthArlington101
    Western burbs destroyed
  13. NorthArlington101
    Low in a crummy spot for the metros at 138. Looks a ton like the GFS/CMC
  14. NorthArlington101
    Snow past DCA at 135, mix line is close but to the east. Heavy stuff into CHO
  15. NorthArlington101
    Snow has made it up past CHO by 132. Looks incoming.
  16. NorthArlington101
    maybe I shouldn't have made fun of the UKIE
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    Another massive guidance shift... 12z 06z
  19. NorthArlington101
    UKIE has 6" for Atlanta and 12" for Douglas, GA (to the SE). I'll toss.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Wanted to add one more GEFS comment then I'll stop the image spam -- the mean improved drastically, but there is still considerable uncertainty among the ENS members. This might be the most conservative 1"% chance I've seen with a snow mean of ~5" in DCA.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Its out to 120 (which is as far as it goes) on the old Canadian government site. Looks nice but hard to tell too much with the one map it gives. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  22. NorthArlington101
    Massive shift. Hard to overstate. 12z 06z
  23. NorthArlington101
    Also -- no lows look poised to run right through Virginia.
  24. NorthArlington101
    GEFS still has a lot of spread but there are fewer members that are uber-suppressed, FWIW.
  25. NorthArlington101
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