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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    little better (mountains) or a little worse (close metro) depending where you are Mean Median
  2. NorthArlington101
    Is there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas
  3. NorthArlington101
    @WxUSAF it’s time to axe the storm thread. Hate to say it but it can’t hurt to do it
  4. NorthArlington101
    DC gets nothing - totals pick up as you go west to be a general 6-8” when you get to the mountains and I-81. Better than the GFS… maybe.
  5. NorthArlington101
    it’s like 5mb weaker than 00z. “Bomb” or bust
  6. NorthArlington101
    Not cold enough in DC and close burbs but looks good out in the 81 corridor thru 105… lp decidedly offshore
  7. NorthArlington101
    primary looks to be inland (but not that far) over SC at 99. High to the north doesn’t look as strong as I’d like but don’t think it’s going to Ohio
  8. NorthArlington101
    Tiny tiny changes - but the H over Central Canada and the LP that makes our 50/50 are both a little stronger thru 77
  9. NorthArlington101
    Most important 12z EURO run of our lives
  10. NorthArlington101
    I just lost 5” of virtual snow on the 12z GEFS
  11. NorthArlington101
    FWIW
  12. NorthArlington101
    @ravensrule can hook you up
  13. NorthArlington101
    The anticipation for each model run, along with the results of it and the subsequent analysis, is pretty darn close to my favorite parts of this hobby. When it's actually snowing is cool too, don't get me wrong, but I'm in it for the battle. So I'll parse any darn thing I can get my hands on. Speaking of which, the Australian looks OK
  14. NorthArlington101
    Honestly -- that's appreciated. Can't help myself though... maybe one day. yeah -- it does actually have a better CAD signal when you look at it going in, but verbatim DC loses <=32 temps by 9:00am and never regains them the entire weekend lol. 850s are only toasted for ~3hrs though... so would be a battle.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I've got one site stood up by Colorado State's program that has a couple AI tools, but it's a little clunky. (https://aiweather.cira.colostate.edu/) Is there anything else better that's publicly available, as far as you know? I did think someone shared a link to the Euro-related AI outputs but I've totally lost track of it
  16. NorthArlington101
    Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2".
  17. NorthArlington101
    OT: has the National Center started looking at any of the newer AI tools?
  18. NorthArlington101
    Do you understand now? Good news is we've got time for one more cycle, at least.
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    We’re teetering on the edge of it’s over.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Fine… 8”+ then
  22. NorthArlington101
    Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios
  23. NorthArlington101
    Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands
  24. NorthArlington101
    It’s not the magic ICON run for the cities… but I assume we’d all take (tho I would travel to I-81 personally)? Even if a little reluctantly as cities flip to heavy rain?
  25. NorthArlington101
    It’s not far off being great and is awesome for many… let’s not jump too far off the ledge.
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