NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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In a way, it makes sense that we all share the same dynamic WAA thump before changing over. It seems unlikely the changeover will move northward in a straight, buzzkilling line, but that map kinda makes sense. I think.
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I’m just (unwisely) hugging the HRRR. Shows a very equitable 3-5” across the region with some banding winners before a little sleet and a little rain.
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Gonna be fun when we get more snow from the vort pass on Monday than the storm itself
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3k has more snow in DC than CHO
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that’s where I lean too - the difference between 6” and 2” doesn’t get me on the road in the morning. 2” vs. 10”, however…
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Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals Tough call.
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he’s running the DT model at this point - no OP guidance from the last day shows quite what he’s showing — those upper end totals are gonna be tough to hit. Not to say it’s wrong and I admire the boldness I suppose, but…
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It was terrible with the Jan 3 storm earlier in the year until a day or so out, FWIW
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Gun to my head I'd agree with that, but the NAMs do give me some pause. Think others have toted the possibility of that warm nose sneaking in earlier than progged and the NAM does do a good job with that. If both NAMs hold that look throughout the day, I think there could start being some serious ice storm murmurs.
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yeah, that one is a pass. couple more runs like that and my journey to cville may get canceled. think I can wait till Sunday morning to make the call. ice + wind = cya, I'm out.
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January Medium/Long Range Discussion
NorthArlington101 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
it’s what, 12” of snow in 48 hours? .25” an hour? toss. You’ve changed man -
January Medium/Long Range Discussion
NorthArlington101 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
168 hours out is practically tomorrow - we got this -
FWIW
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CFS have any value in the short-range? Or the NAVGEM?
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Roughly the same.
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if true, it does make it.
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First round of brine on some streets in Arlington. #itshappening
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I'm rather stunned by the consistency of outcomes from a few days ago, especially for something with so many moving parts. Today's 12z 12z on 1/11
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my favorite fun fact -- Charlottesville has the same amount of restaurants per capita as New York City (and most are really good)
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Mets are designing their own models to show a better outcome, smh /s
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