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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. I'm surprised the Pivotal maps are that poor -- the run obviously sucks, but it looked a bit better straight from the proverbial horses mouth (Environmental Canada) -- https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  2. Even non-Kuchera it's a bit low. Only noticed because of my focus on CHO.
  3. The Pivotal map seems low... this is what I get from WxBell.
  4. oh no, you've reminded me of weather.us. Looks like they sitll have the Australian, Chinese, (high-res?) UKIE, and the French models. so many additional toys.
  5. Agreeing with others that the disco has been rather poor... I'm resolving to try and get better with the met concepts myself. I've got 7,000 posts and the great stuff people post has largely bounced off me like I'm rubber. Need to cover myself in superglue. There are some truly great resources out there, though. The Weeks 1&2 readings from this college class posted online by UofA look potentially solid for a lot of us with less skills. http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring17/atmo336s2/home.html
  6. Good news... you don't have to imagine it.
  7. I love ya man, but learned myself over the years that the sage-like wisdom coming from the youngest person on the forum doesn't play well. Usually I found that I was posting things like this to reassure myself, lol. is this just a product of the low being inland, or is there something else specific to avoid?
  8. deform comes in at 132/135, adds some nice snow. Still sorta painful in the I-95 zone
  9. east of the beltway/95 temp problems at 129 - fine pretty soon into FFX
  10. FWIW, 00z GFS does have some of that new recon data in it.
  11. Here ya go. Go wild, but privately please. There are minors here!
  12. Honestly, totally true. Shouldn't throw out terms without a perfect idea of what I'm talking about. That said, I stand by personally being less concerned with suppression, lol.
  13. "Vibe" wise, I'm happy to let the cutter trend stop for a few runs. Let that worry mellow out for a bit. With suppression we can at least pretend it's right where we want it, that's difficult to say when the low keeps running more and more inland and the model is showing 40 and rain for the close burbs verbatim. also, as I've beat to death, I can always go to Charlottesville. Cutter/suppressed could work out equally well there. I'll play as many sides as I need to play to win.
  14. yep -- lot of suppression upon a closer examination. maybe a better problem than a cutter? ens that hit are nice though. feast or famine.
  15. One more photo -- 18z control is similar but less snowy by ~2" for the metro. 18z 12z
  16. The MSLP tracks looked okay to me but the snow mean took a fair hit. 18z 12z
  17. 18z EURO rolls out at 6:50 and goes to 90 18z EPS rolls out at 7:50 and goes out to 144
  18. yes -- despite the good hits and a still pretty stellar mean, overall probability is low. however, if it hits...
  19. Yep. Not seeing a lot of what the OP is selling. p25 the only member buying in.
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