NorthArlington101

You'd look at these panels and assume everyone is about to get totally smoked...

you are totally right -- not sure why it leaps to the coast when it becomes a p-type map.

I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another.

From my limited years down there, that does appear to be true. I guess on the positive side for winter wx, I'd expect the CAD to hold on a bit longer. Could be pretty icy.

Actually, the culprit is fairly clear -- DC and close burbs get dryslotted hard for 6 hours in the peak of the storm. edit: that said, ICON isn't gonna nail anything like that from this range. the low track is better, all that should be noted.

per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC.

Yeah, this was a step back when it comes to confidence. A little bit troubling, a little bit exciting. 18z 00z

anyone else not giving up till Friday? or maybe you are feeling #blessed we'll at least get a thump out of it?

that’s, uh, unfortunate.

go Hoos!

it only goes to 90 hours on 18z.

On mobile but the GEFS seemed to shift the main ULL much more East

Good news folks, the KMA is all in.

loses them at 114 though, but it's close. Would take a jog ~50mi east, maybe less. way gone at 117, that's harder to fix lmao. but as mentioned, fine at 120.

I'm surprised the Pivotal maps are that poor -- the run obviously sucks, but it looked a bit better straight from the proverbial horses mouth (Environmental Canada) -- https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Even non-Kuchera it's a bit low. Only noticed because of my focus on CHO.

The Pivotal map seems low... this is what I get from WxBell.

oh no, you've reminded me of weather.us. Looks like they sitll have the Australian, Chinese, (high-res?) UKIE, and the French models. so many additional toys.

Agreeing with others that the disco has been rather poor... I'm resolving to try and get better with the met concepts myself. I've got 7,000 posts and the great stuff people post has largely bounced off me like I'm rubber. Need to cover myself in superglue. There are some truly great resources out there, though. The Weeks 1&2 readings from this college class posted online by UofA look potentially solid for a lot of us with less skills. http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring17/atmo336s2/home.html

Good news... you don't have to imagine it.

I love ya man, but learned myself over the years that the sage-like wisdom coming from the youngest person on the forum doesn't play well. Usually I found that I was posting things like this to reassure myself, lol. is this just a product of the low being inland, or is there something else specific to avoid?