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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Pretty close. One or two more nudges and maybe we could start talking about a quick thump? Maybe we can get our first NAMming of the year in a few minutes. Also - thanks for the reminder on EURO soundings on TTT. Crazy that data is free now.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately.
  3. NorthArlington101
    We are also in LWX "first guess" range. Maybe a bit snowier than expected... considering expectations are for near-nil.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Verbatim, 18z EURO is nasty for the mountains and favored spots but doesn't get much into the metro. Unlike past runs, though, it transitions NMD to snow for a time -- basically jumped the trace line ~50m to the south.
  5. NorthArlington101
    It doesn’t take much looking at the soundings to know that map is unfortunately off base, but it’s a fairly impactful (icy) run for everyone outside of the cities/SE. It’s not horrifically far off at the mids and pretty close at the surface tho - wouldn’t take too much trending to get the ice impacts further East, as others have already said.
  6. NorthArlington101
  7. NorthArlington101
    Anecdotally, the Canadian hi-res stuff tends to run cold and overdo precip. That said, I’m considering a pivot off from my plans to go to Deep Creek for snow (looking less likely) to head to Staunton if it looks like a serious ice storm. Supposed to head that way Friday night anyway but might arrive a day or two earlier to scout out a real ice storm, if it comes to pass.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Canadian ENS say it’ll be quite slick. Few flip to snow but the highlight is this panel.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Might’ve oversold this but we are substantially more in the game than a few runs ago. Pretty much every ensemble member at least starts as something wintry, which is a big step up from just a few runs ago.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Unsurprisingly, the GEFS are going to follow the OP. Some nice looking (snowier) members in the mix, can share once it runs through.
  11. NorthArlington101
    If it comes to it, I'll be shooting you a DM for ideas. I'm not too picky, but between my own bad decisions/poor vacation timing I haven't seen more than 8" of snow at once since 2016... I'm pretty sure.
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    If the EURO depiction actually verified... I'd do it. Not how I intended to use the vacation fund, but a good 2' of snow in December would be pretty nice.
  14. NorthArlington101
    That EURO run looks like get a cabin in Deep Creek and enjoy. Been told my work is fully remote till at least the holidays so… very tempting.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Good news -- this falls over the course of 3 days. Bad news -- this falls over the course of 3 days.
  17. NorthArlington101
    CMC and it’s ens are also intriguing Sun/Mon for western zones especially. As someone who enjoys the medium/short range stuff even when it’s a long shot, it’s been a decent tracking night… need something new now that Friday night continues to evaporate
  18. NorthArlington101
    Been noticing the ensembles tick up a few tenths (weak, I know) during that period — thanks for sharing.
  19. NorthArlington101
    GFS trended back toward the event existing. Snow TV for some MD folks at least. Hi-Res stuff still says *poof*.
  20. NorthArlington101
    EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.
  21. NorthArlington101
    No “storm” is also an option lol — 00z NAM says what system
  22. NorthArlington101
    GFS is incrementally better… baby steps. Maybe also worth noting the 18z NAM at 84 (I know) is running a general 3-4 degrees C colder than the GFS at the same time. Not sure the NAM would’ve gone anywhere super interesting regardless but there is room for a widening of the snow TV range. RGEM is even colder.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Encouraging to see the “event” live after an off run or two and while the other models trend a bit colder. Still got 4 days to will something a little more interesting to happen.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Super quick Fri/Sat check-in… the GFS and it’s ensembles are getting colder, but at the moment the GFS/EURO are looking they meet in the middle to make a chillier rain. Lame.
  25. NorthArlington101
    For the 2 people interested, the GEPS turned on the toaster. I’m not even interested enough to wait for the EURO unless I’m accidentally awake in an hour.
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