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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    someone up there just shared your (I think) Mid-Atlantic grief cycle image, lmao
  2. NorthArlington101
    sort of? the 3k has a band in a similar spot but a hair more north
  3. NorthArlington101
    The band near Warrenton looks pretty legit, any ground truth there?
  4. NorthArlington101
    GFS looks to be on track with temps and still drops a respectable amount of snow for a good chunk of the subforum.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Failing because it gets too warm would be a fun way to put the nail in the coffin on this whole thing
  6. NorthArlington101
    Short-res models seemed to miss this stuff, as they did the precip north of CHO (which I don't actually know if it's making it to the ground). Weenie handbook says it means there is plenty of juice up above us.
  7. NorthArlington101
    2-4" for Baltimore with a rogue 5" has been the expectation for awhile now, I feel like?
  8. NorthArlington101
    give or take 30” for MA
  9. NorthArlington101
    I’m not knowledgeable enough to answer this so I’d have to phone a friend, lol. I feel like people have been talking this up as a sorta unique set up, so that has its dangers.
  10. NorthArlington101
    think ji’s right above yours might be funnier. I’ve been all in on this feature for a few days now since I’m too west and Millville and some other mets online have been fairly bullish. If it continues to juice up someone will do surprisingly well, I think. 5” might be tough
  11. NorthArlington101
    I think the front end can be weenie-willed up to a 5" jackpot, genuinely. To answer the ratio question from Scraff, they improve as it goes on, but the bulk of the good stuff falls at 10:1, based on how Pivotal interprets the Kuchera #s
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    man, I’ve got like no work to do at college this weekend - I bet I could make this trip work haha
  14. NorthArlington101
    Also finished Ozark tonight - can’t wait for May, which is when it seems like Pt. 2 is airing. Very glad it’s not next fall, which I had feared.
  15. NorthArlington101
    FV3-HiRes, temps a bit of an issue:
  16. NorthArlington101
    i updated it - tbf it should've included an additional 3 hours. 1" from the coastal would be a win, i guess
  17. NorthArlington101
    that's true, but looking at how much QPF it throws back from the coastal given that statement is kinda funny, lol 18z comparison
  18. NorthArlington101
    12k NAM is an acceptable compromise for all + it's colder than the HRRR.
  19. NorthArlington101
    yeah, if you mean the fact it says it's 35 and it'll actually be 31 and that the band is gonna move 20 miles south and be directly over my yard, I agree
  20. NorthArlington101
    For the people in the band, most of it comes in 3 hours. Temps aren't great tho, I'll admit.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Extended HRRR -- someone will steal 3-4".
  22. NorthArlington101
    got ninja’d in the main thread
  23. NorthArlington101
    Storm Total @WinterWxLuvr 18z 12z
  24. NorthArlington101
    This is what the coastal brings to the immediate area:
  25. NorthArlington101
    This is largely pre-coastal:
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