Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals Tough call.
he’s running the DT model at this point - no OP guidance from the last day shows quite what he’s showing — those upper end totals are gonna be tough to hit. Not to say it’s wrong and I admire the boldness I suppose, but…
Gun to my head I'd agree with that, but the NAMs do give me some pause. Think others have toted the possibility of that warm nose sneaking in earlier than progged and the NAM does do a good job with that. If both NAMs hold that look throughout the day, I think there could start being some serious ice storm murmurs.
yeah, that one is a pass. couple more runs like that and my journey to cville may get canceled. think I can wait till Sunday morning to make the call.
ice + wind = cya, I'm out.
I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another.