NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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deform comes in at 132/135, adds some nice snow. Still sorta painful in the I-95 zone
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east of the beltway/95 temp problems at 129 - fine pretty soon into FFX
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looks nice…
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Could be worse.
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FWIW, 00z GFS does have some of that new recon data in it.
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Here ya go. Go wild, but privately please. There are minors here!
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Honestly, totally true. Shouldn't throw out terms without a perfect idea of what I'm talking about. That said, I stand by personally being less concerned with suppression, lol.
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see you at 2:30am for the eps!
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"Vibe" wise, I'm happy to let the cutter trend stop for a few runs. Let that worry mellow out for a bit. With suppression we can at least pretend it's right where we want it, that's difficult to say when the low keeps running more and more inland and the model is showing 40 and rain for the close burbs verbatim. also, as I've beat to death, I can always go to Charlottesville. Cutter/suppressed could work out equally well there. I'll play as many sides as I need to play to win.
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yep -- lot of suppression upon a closer examination. maybe a better problem than a cutter? ens that hit are nice though. feast or famine.
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One more photo -- 18z control is similar but less snowy by ~2" for the metro. 18z 12z
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The MSLP tracks looked okay to me but the snow mean took a fair hit. 18z 12z
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18z EURO rolls out at 6:50 and goes to 90 18z EPS rolls out at 7:50 and goes out to 144
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yes -- despite the good hits and a still pretty stellar mean, overall probability is low. however, if it hits...
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Yep. Not seeing a lot of what the OP is selling. p25 the only member buying in.
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haha, above. mistype.
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Never gets below above freezing in CHO
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WxBell looks rather different, FWIW.
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12z 00z
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Pretty sweet.
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I think you missed the numerous caveats I gave I the first sentence. Not much to do 5-6 days in advance but discuss the model runs… I find it fun to look at the micro level. Anyways… EPS is looking nice. Details to come.
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I'm debating details that ultimately won't matter in 12 hours (and details that the EURO cant be trusted to get right), but the EURO pushes temps at DCA to 37 by hour 141 with driving rain. Temps recover a bit for the deform band and would surely recover some snow out of it but verbatim that's pretty close to a cliff jumper run for those in the Beltway compared to the deck pics you (and me in CHO, if that verifies) would post.
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Winter 2021-2022 Digital Snow Thread
NorthArlington101 replied to NorthArlington101's topic in Mid Atlantic
For real -- this storm has had too many moving pieces not to shift around further but the consensus among the Top 3 globals is remarkable. If we all lived 75 miles west we'd be honking the "big ones lock in early" weenism. Control matches the OP.
