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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    My two cents on this storm is that places out on I-81 are vastly underestimating the icing potential with this one — DC gets up to like 50 on some of these models as the low tucks in so the ice isn’t gonna be a problem here for long but areas out there only get to 34, maybe. I think things are gonna suck (or be very enjoyable, if you like winter) out your way for sure.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I just don’t know what that means, I guess. Seems like a way to justify higher hopes, which is fine but not a reason to throw guidance out the window. The EURO/HRRR/ICON are already showing higher totals so it’s not like a boom scenario wouldn’t be caught by some of the models.
  3. NorthArlington101
    EURO/HRRR combo isn’t bad. Hug it and ignore everything else. 19/2 in Arlington, which is where my obs will be for this one. Good luck to my Charlottesville brethren.
  4. NorthArlington101
    That’s probably very true, but I don’t think it means you throw meteorology 101 out the window here in hopes of a weenie miracle, I guess is the point I’m trying to make. We obviously have some hope for a strong WAA push that helps keep things cooler. Psu mentioned something like that a few nights ago. I just don’t think that depends on a unique “this has never been seen before” event.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I don’t know about this argument… I mean every weather event is unique but it’s not like you can’t take from others where the low was running way less far to the west and extrapolate.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Bold - I like it.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Good luck - let me know what you measure. Decided it wasn’t worth the early travel.
  8. NorthArlington101
    I saw online that the first video was old & from Indonesia — rest is still crazy, though.
  9. NorthArlington101
    and in another 72 hours, it’s over Lake Erie
  10. NorthArlington101
  11. NorthArlington101
    This leaves out the SW, which I think you are OK with based on your handle, but if not let me know and I’ll DM you something else.
  12. NorthArlington101
    A smart person would not check this forum or the models until Monday. That’s not me
  13. NorthArlington101
    In a way, it makes sense that we all share the same dynamic WAA thump before changing over. It seems unlikely the changeover will move northward in a straight, buzzkilling line, but that map kinda makes sense. I think.
  14. NorthArlington101
    I’m just (unwisely) hugging the HRRR. Shows a very equitable 3-5” across the region with some banding winners before a little sleet and a little rain.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Gonna be fun when we get more snow from the vort pass on Monday than the storm itself
  16. NorthArlington101
    3k has more snow in DC than CHO
  17. NorthArlington101
    that’s where I lean too - the difference between 6” and 2” doesn’t get me on the road in the morning. 2” vs. 10”, however…
  18. NorthArlington101
    Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals Tough call.
  19. NorthArlington101
    he’s running the DT model at this point - no OP guidance from the last day shows quite what he’s showing — those upper end totals are gonna be tough to hit. Not to say it’s wrong and I admire the boldness I suppose, but…
  20. NorthArlington101
  21. NorthArlington101
    It was terrible with the Jan 3 storm earlier in the year until a day or so out, FWIW
  22. NorthArlington101
    Gun to my head I'd agree with that, but the NAMs do give me some pause. Think others have toted the possibility of that warm nose sneaking in earlier than progged and the NAM does do a good job with that. If both NAMs hold that look throughout the day, I think there could start being some serious ice storm murmurs.
  23. NorthArlington101
    yeah, that one is a pass. couple more runs like that and my journey to cville may get canceled. think I can wait till Sunday morning to make the call. ice + wind = cya, I'm out.
  24. NorthArlington101
    it’s what, 12” of snow in 48 hours? .25” an hour? toss. You’ve changed man
  25. NorthArlington101
    168 hours out is practically tomorrow - we got this
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