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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Hard to call it anything other than a bomb
  2. NorthArlington101
  3. NorthArlington101
    EURO isn't taking the GFS path to a win for us - we've got two different paths to success here. Beginning to feel a litttle comfortable.
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been pretty conservative but the EPS looks like a fairly healthy cave
  6. NorthArlington101
    I would've bet we'd been dead 2 days ago so I could be wrong but seeing the GEM/EURO all on a pretty similar wavelength makes me think we gotta almost be done with them trending toward the GFS. They still really aren't close as far as getting hammered on the day Sunday.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I take back what I was saying a little bit about the 12z EURO. The inverted trough/CCB/whogivesa improved and that was most of our improvement, BUT the coastal did genuinely improve, though it mostly mattered looking further up the coast. You have to call it a bit of a cave... we need a lot more, though. Feeling like a NJ/LI jackpot at the moment.
  8. NorthArlington101
    My recall is only 1-2" in my corner of Arlington, so some big gradient differences. Perhaps I'm a little low.
  9. NorthArlington101
    I’m not quite as excited as some other folks here - baby steps at h5 only going so far. Think most of this is the IVT (which I do think has a shot).
  10. NorthArlington101
    This finding it's way into being a canonical Nina blizzard makes sense. Long as it's something we can cash in a litttle bit as opposed to the storms we can't name
  11. NorthArlington101
    If you run the last four back it's hard not to see a slight NE trend in the best totals but still gotta hope we're just gonna meet in the middle to an outcome that is about half of this
  12. NorthArlington101
    Temps on the GFS aren't awful... 32/33.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Kuchie clown just for @MN Transplant
  14. NorthArlington101
    BWI gonna be over 20” 10:1.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I think we’re counting on rates to overcome in this depiction. Not sure Conn Ave will cave during the day
  16. NorthArlington101
    GFS is still a bomb
  17. NorthArlington101
    I'd say we bust low on temps as we have all week but we know that's not likely
  18. NorthArlington101
    IVT after dark is probably the best non-GFS solution that's on the table
  19. NorthArlington101
    Then we need to get the GFS to slow down or we need to create our own cold air Or drive west
  20. NorthArlington101
    Agree - just the NAM has 3-5" OTG for DC proper at the time. Stuff to resolve there. Willing to blend the two for now and rely on 3k tomorrow Could always make it a heckuva chase... start in the Shenandoah's, drive to assateague...
  21. NorthArlington101
    that's a color you don't see much
  22. NorthArlington101
    Temp related 100% but that's how the screwjob would happen. DC starts as rain, coastal happens too west, then we miss the IVT
  23. NorthArlington101
    1/3/22 was the last GFS coup. I was in Puerto Rico. Thought it couldn't be right for days, that it would cave. Then...
  24. NorthArlington101
    3k shows the DC disaster gap but it would've filled in a bit on later panels
  25. NorthArlington101
    I'd rather be in the Virginia' delmarva but not gonna kick a 6-8" NAM run out of bed
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