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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I'm the wrong guy for this conversation actually haha - I just take the DC Bikeshare bikes! I have like a ~7minute bike commute so I haven't invested in any real gear minus a good helmet. Wouldn't recommend the non-electric D.C. bikes for anything other than super flat terrain. Super clunky bikes.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Even the sun makes the cold feel kinda warm at this point... still wouldn't mind biking to work without being bundled up!
  3. NorthArlington101
    12z GFS back at it again. Snowing in the teens at Day 10. I'll be out of town, so sure it'll work out
  4. NorthArlington101
    Tornadoes are a lot more interesting to report on, unfortunately. We can debate the merits of the 15% sig1 tor, but that usually is the tornado threat of the year, so don't blame local news for reporting that as such. That takes a lot of attention away from the winds, which were always forecast to roll through between 5-8pm. It distracted us all too and we should in theory know better.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I know they just revamped to fix this - but I think most folks, if you asked them, would say yesterday's storms were maybe a 2/5 in severity on a five point scale. Maybe a 1.5/5. The problem(s) - of which there are many - is that a moderate risk is somewhat accurately described as a 4/5 risk. The kind of storms you only see every 3 years around here. Nobody felt yesterday's storms did that. So verification on percentages... good for SPC, I guess. Lot of room for messaging improvements.
  6. NorthArlington101
  7. NorthArlington101
    WxBell doesn’t show nearly that much. Sorry. Funny though.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Was windy and rainy for 45s. Good thing I got let out at 2pm
  9. NorthArlington101
    I’ll assume this is the thread we’ll use for snow obs too
  10. NorthArlington101
    Well, in fairness, you want to let them out when it isn’t storming!
  11. NorthArlington101
    Wasn’t updated when I checked - need to just get my Twitter notifications on for their head. Think I need to go in anyway but sounds like I can maybe jet off at noon. Good deal as far as I’m concerned.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Where are you seeing that [emoji102]
  13. NorthArlington101
    The parameter space is obviously interesting. Just not seeing a lot of support for something really taking advantage of it. If a storm can get rooted, game on.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Probably gonna age badly but the prefrontal cells that are firing on the models verbatim don’t look that impressive. Sheared out and more like crapvection that minimizes the threat of the line later a bit. Quote me tomorrow though when the EF3 runs over my head.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I think you’ll get classes after 2pm canceled. Though UVA actually has designated storm shelters on-Grounds so maybe they’ll be a little more willing to give it a go. I recall a tornado threat day where I was in class watching the radar so they obviously didn’t cancel that day!
  16. NorthArlington101
    They just want the liability off their hands. Once one district called it off everyone was gonna follow. I’m even fairly sure OPM will send me home early if the advice going around is “be off the roads by 4.” Unlikely this tops derecho but there is a bigger tornado threat.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Hmmm… don’t know if I’ve got a lot of good advice for you here. Not a lot of great views looking toward the mountains. Top of Culbreth Garage? Or from Clem on the balcony looking east?
  18. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, feel the big tree concern. I am in the DC condo situation so I’m unconcerned, but family is well in the forests of Arlington. Big tree took down the neighbor’s roof during the derecho. We get ours inspected every year since that but it always scared me during thunderstorm season.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I’ve thought about telling my family to do something similar but will wait til the line actually forms. At least head to the Starbucks lol.
  20. NorthArlington101
    With the new rating system you can more easily have a wind-driven high risk. High risk is less likely to equal a massive tornado day… same with moderate. I still don’t think we need a high risk upgrade, but you could probably justify it tomorrow if we uptrend even slightly.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Tomorrow is an obvious evening activities canceled for local school systems. Trickier call to early release depending on when the squall line is. I’d guess most schools pull the trigger.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Have a flight that Friday. Wasn’t worried about missing a winter storm when I booked it. Probably still shouldn’t be
  23. NorthArlington101
    Severe sucks. Don’t want anyone losing their house or their life. I track it to stay busy, but I hate it. Would be okay with no severe ever again.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Wind driven moderate feels like a decent guess for Monday right now. I’d lean 45% wind sig 2 10% tor sig 1 Hail idc
  25. NorthArlington101
    Cappucci and his team there ideally would know better that it's a Day 4 outlook and that it doesn't correspond to a risk level at that range... but yeah. I wouldn't be shocked to see some school impacts Monday given a four day warning timeline is pretty big for a severe event.
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