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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Pure sleet rip page. Hard to not do the “what if it was snow” but this is cool. No idea how much.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I probably should’ve cleared my “snowboard” but figured it was gonna be tough to keep track of. Just trying to appreciate what’s falling one way or the other… it’s ripping pellets
  3. NorthArlington101
    Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not.
  4. NorthArlington101
    I’m still crossing my fingers and hoping never… but let us know if ya’ll do. Probably means we’re a few hours from a flip. Send the dumping sleet up here too! I want to truly get sandblasted
  5. NorthArlington101
    Thank you for calling that out… never would’ve seen it. Miller A factory… all time weenie run.
  6. NorthArlington101
  7. NorthArlington101
    Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Only good if OPM gives another day off.
  9. NorthArlington101
    You still pinging @katabatic ? Realize now that Wisp isn't that far from you... would be quite the difference.
  10. NorthArlington101
    You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would. Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk
  11. NorthArlington101
    This is the last time the forum underestimates NAM thermals... until the next marginal event. Seems wrong calling this a "marginal event" when the temperature is in the teens.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Alright... next. The AIFS and AIGEFS ens are still interesting for next Sunday - moreso the AIFS. Would want to see this come back on an OP run in the next couple of days to make me think we have a real chance.
  13. NorthArlington101
    @bnchodid you use your yardstick?
  14. NorthArlington101
    Got bad news, I’m like 90/10 sleet right now. Gonna be rate dependent. Good luck!
  15. NorthArlington101
    I think if the Culpeper people are reporting mixing back to snow I think we might be in wintry mix mode for the better part of the morning, rate dependent. More like 70/30 sleet/snow now.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Willing to consider I don’t know what sleet looks like. Things are still flying in the air like snow but hearing more pings. Vis still noticeably fuzzier… maybe 50/50 atm?
  17. NorthArlington101
    Can’t believe I’m holding onto snow longer than you. Weird one here.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Still hanging on in Downtown DC. Can hear louder flakes but it’s at least 80/20 snow.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I’d probably call it close to 5” as the sleet draws ever closer. Seeing a lot of 5” reports and remembering some genius (hah) started saying 3 days ago the only forecast for this snow was 5” of snow then sleet…
  20. NorthArlington101
    NAM kicked butt on thermals for the most part as anyone should’ve reasonably expected. I don’t know if anyone modeled the I-81 corridor flipping to sleet before DC, though
  21. NorthArlington101
  22. NorthArlington101
    All timer jebwalk
  23. NorthArlington101
  24. NorthArlington101
    For the most part
  25. NorthArlington101
    Tough to buy it but this would be sick. Prob shouldn’t have even looked. Now I’m making you look
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