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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Delayed due to a data issue. Not worth staying up for
  2. NorthArlington101
    UKIE isn’t exactly awesome at thermals. Given nothing else showing so much precip lost to rain, I’m gonna do a weenie move and toss the snow output and just look at the QPF
  3. NorthArlington101
    Is the 00z out? I’ve only got 18z on WxBell, which wasn’t awesome, so it would be a good shift.
  4. NorthArlington101
    18z EURO held - just a little drier
  5. NorthArlington101
    Oh trust me I’m very concerned about it. I’d be less concerned if I was you just based on locations but we both could get mega screwed here. What’s funny is if things hold we’ll just be waiting for that band to form and praying for our nowcasting. Can’t really even watch it come in.
  6. NorthArlington101
    If this happens it’s high rates and crashing temperatures in the middle of the night. It’s not my concern maybe outside of right in the middle of Downtown DC (where I’m at lol)
  7. NorthArlington101
  8. NorthArlington101
    GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled
  9. NorthArlington101
  10. NorthArlington101
    WxBell crawls for GEM maps so not yet. AFD is out btw - holding on advisories. I’ll let you copy paste
  11. NorthArlington101
    RGEM holds
  12. NorthArlington101
    That’s still okay. Now the 3k… no thanks lol.
  13. NorthArlington101
    CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent.
  14. NorthArlington101
    sorry one more EPS post - this is the median. While the ens are obviously less dispersive so close in, it's still nice to see they very strongly agree with the OP (as opposed to yesterday where the 3-5" 12z EURO run was an outlier of outliers)
  15. NorthArlington101
    It's probably past time to look at the EPS but this is notably more generous/widespread than 06z, fwiw.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand: It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    EURO a little futher southwest with the best stuff. Gonna be a nice DC-Annapolis run
  19. NorthArlington101
    GFS not a "make everyone happy" run but it did get wetter and expand it's band a bit.
  20. NorthArlington101
    hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide
  21. NorthArlington101
    If I was to make a snow map I think I'd make it look like the 3k NAM. Looks about right.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, the drier sucks. Storm moves out faster - looks more like other models TBH. NAM being soooo wet was an aberration. This is fine with me but I'd prefer the 06z
  23. NorthArlington101
    12k NAM looks pretty darn similar through 42. Maybe a juuust hair south. Don't have the nice maps yet.
  24. NorthArlington101
    48hr HRRR owes me an inch for today still. Always prefer to have every piece of guidance snow on me but I'm okay losing this one. I'll hug the 12k NAM, which promised @Bob Chill 4" of snow today at 12z yesterday. I'm sure that's panned out well.
  25. NorthArlington101
    works for me!
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