MillvilleWx

This was EXACTLY what WPC mentioned in their Day 3-7 disco and why they were not using the GFS.

That run was so close to something bigger for part of the sub-forum. This storm has so much potential, but the question is how far north does the CCB core end up. GFS was very close to a banner event for everyone north of I-70.

The GFS took a small step toward the other models with regards to the 5H reflection, but it's still the most progressive and aggressive with the primary into OH. In fact, you can look at how it's struggling to pinpoint the surface reflection on the coast with the low parked over a broad area of convection in the Atlantic. It's way different than every model. It's not even in the same zip code as the GFSv16 either. It's either seeing something, or it's got some serious biases to shake. It was doing better up until the 5H depiction went into IL. Then it reverted back. Still a nice WAA push on Sunday, so I do like seeing that regardless of the outcome later on.

Thru Hr 57, the 5H shift is apparent from last nights 00z run. It is not as progressive and the vort is holding together over MO and not opening up as has been the case last several runs. It's taking another baby step to the rest of guidance. Still have to wait and see what it does once it reaches the OH Valley.

It's one of those times where I hope the NAM is on to the right idea for y'alls sake!

RGEM once again holding ground with the cold powder idea for the WAA snow on Sunday. Thermal profile is frigid through the whole front end, just like the NAM. Modest 850-700mb frontogen over NoVA and the 270 corridor.

WAA is a translation to greater moisture feed. When you have warmer, less dense air riding into colder airmasses, you get a period of ascent that generates precip once it enters the colder thermal profile. Snowfall is physical mechanism generated by cooled water and enhanced through ascent (lifting mechanisms). WAA over a cold environment will lead to enhanced areas of lift within the boundary layer responsible for a majority of crystal growth in snow. You might have seen the term "Frontogenesis or Frontogen" mentioned in the forum at times. Those are favored areas of lift within certain boundary layers in the atmosphere. WAA regimes are typically located within the 850mb to 600mb layer aloft, which is favored with moisture transport. The better the lift between certain temperature profiles tends to generate better snow crystal structure (Dendrites) that accumulate more efficiently and are lighter in nature due to less water vapor condensing to make the snowflake.

Man. I know it's the NAM, but that front end from the WAA is cold powder for a majority of the snowfall. The thermal profile is perfect and slowly starts to degrade at 850mb half way through. It would be beautiful

Right now a transfer is off the NC coast. I know its the NAM at range, but you can see it starting down near ILM on the final panel.

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Yup! Retrograde at least but I don’t see the full capture to induce a stall. However, could very well be a crawler for several hours with a N or NNW trajectory. This almost reminds me of 2006 vibes with regards to the 5H low as the low kind of waited for the ULL pivot through VA before finally kicking out of here. It has that potential and that was special for many. Note to readers: I am NOT saying this is 2006 by any means. Different synoptic pattern. Just the ULL progression and waiting aspect .

Yeah, but wait till you get my bill

Have we ever thought of bargaining with sushi and bulgogi to please the models? Even if it doesn't work, that sounds absolutely phenomenal right now, and now I want Asian food. Damnit

You should enjoy the WAA stuff no question. You and @Disc will be getting pounded by aggregates most likely Saturday night into early Sunday. You want the primary to stay near IN. That's the sweet spot

For sure. I'm always a take the easy road if possible for these setups. Experienced too many failures while my friends in PA/NJ/NY/MA talk about how awesome the storm was and posting on SM. Plus, whatever falls will stick instantly on Sunday. Plenty cold

One of the trends I like seeing is the increased favorability of the front end working out to at least advisory criteria with warning criteria not too far off for areas north of I-70 and west of US15. Here's a trend of the Prob 24 Snow >3" on the GEFS from 06z Sun to 06z Mon

Miller B life is not the life for the Mid Atlantic unfortunately. Even the 2nd bomb in 2010 was an inside 72 hour move to something remotely favorable. Then as the rest of that season went, it turned into a doozy for us. That's rare. That's also why I'm hesitant but cautiously optimistic for the coastal, but more rooting for the WAA piece so people can cash before any potential flop.

1. A primary that holds its strength too long with a venture to the eastern OH/western PA area would favor a torch at the mid-levels and likely have the ULL pass too far to the north leaving the area blank with any round 2 potential. 2. A late transfer where 40N becomes a more prime location compared to our sub-forum. This is probably the biggest worry of them all. 3. I wouldn't worry about a kick in this situation given the positioning of the NS vort 4. A weak UL or late developing ULL will shift focus to the NE with the surface low redevelopment too weak and far north to matter. In order of "worry" for the area, I'd favor the order of: 2, then 1, then 4

Not intentionally. Brownies otoh......

I'm a hugger, but I'm 1900 miles away

Cookies are great to eat at any meal?

Snowstorm solstice. Just wait till Groundhog Day. He'll see his shadow, which means 6 more weeks of Ji

Your area is always tricky due to your proxy and unfavorable endeavor with a screaming SE wind upstairs. You know your climo though and are reasonable with expectations. I would think Advisory level snowfall is well within cards and maybe even near low end warning. The coastal, if it materializes will be a bugaboo for a while as you roast in the boundary layer. You would need an arctic feed to keep you all frozen. You can catch the backside pivot as the 7H and 85H low cut underneath and cold air crashes back in. Tough call, but hopefully you can get some white for your hood. I love seeing pictures of your home with snow

There is considerable divergence in the 5H pattern post 00z Sun on the GFS compared to other globals and even the NAM. The GFS remains in fairly decent envelope of 5H progression with a strong, negatively tilted trough centered over E KS and W MO by the Saturday night time frame. For whatever reason, the GFS then opens the wave and the energy becomes diffuse for a 24-36 hr period before reorganizing as it pivots southeastward after reaching a latitude of southern MI. No other global has this, even it's GFSv16 brother. The rest of guidance is in close proxy to each other in terms of 5H low positioning, surface reflection, and overall handling of the precip field as it exits east of the Mississippi. The GFS could very well score a coup or the other guidance can start to gradually move towards a GFS-like scenario. Another option is a meet in the middle marker with regards to the 5H progression and we see another plethora of options in terms of potential outcomes downstream. This is a pretty delicate setup for the east coast where small ticks in strength or low placements will mean the difference between a small event or significant outcome. Don't be surprised if we see 20 different variations of an outcome by Sunday with a blend of a few that handle the UL pattern the best.