MillvilleWx

Are you insinuating that I don't know the facts of the storm? What you posted isn't a fact. It's a marginal dissemination of 1/30th of a model run with a projected sounding from one piece of guidance, 2 hrs before a fairly dynamic disturbance propagates into the Mid Atlantic. I don't see a remote breakdown of guidance from you in any post for this storm. It's basic model regurgitation that can be done by a novice. When I started on this forum, I did a lot of sit back and listening. I chimed in when I had a question and when I had something of merit. It helped me learn. A lot of people could really benefit from that. I appreciate your love for meteorology, which is one of the reasons you are here, but man oh man, you gotta read the room or provide some context as to why you feel this storm will flop. It might not be juggernaut, but it's still going to produce something of reason, even with a marginal environment.

Why are you bringing up the beginning of the precip time frame? This is well ahead of the 7H frontogenesis band that WILL develop to the south and move north as the SLP along the coast move NE into your latitude. The lowest boundary layer, which has been hammered ad-nauseum, is the biggest deterrent for the higher end potential for the event. It would've taken a potent s/w (which was modeled by most guidance as early as 24 hrs ago) to overcome that type of setup. It's trended a bit weaker with the s/w and in turn has limited the potential of the event. Also, you live in basically DC. You know your climo. Marginal events don't work super well for you unless you get significant cooling aloft down into the lowest confines of the boundary layer. You don't have elevation on your side either, so you can't take advantage of orographic enhancement that happens all the time with these setups. You're going to get snow tomorrow, but posting the snow depth map (which I know you have some kind of fascination with despite it being ultra conservative 99% of the time), consistently bad mouthing a setup where it'll snow and likely a few moderate to heavy bands at that, and the fact 70% of this forum lives in a better climo than you should cause you to just sit back and take what's given unless you have some meteorological premise to back up all your posts. Persistent pessimism is not only frowned upon, it's extremely debilitating for others on this site trying to learn. You've been here long enough, you should know that. I'm 1900 miles away putting in time and effort to a forecast I'm gonna nothing from, but I want others to learn from what is being shown on guidance and how to forecast. Please, next time, if the setup starts looking bleak for you, move to Banter, or follow along with nothing to say and enjoy whatever snow falls. People want to learn, and this constant back and forth of the same diatribe and handwringing is absolutely a detriment to anyone who wants to learn the fundamentals of meteorology and the process in forecasting.

I will absolutely be making an update to my map after glossing over things. It's apparent that the 5H depiction has lost its luster with the orientation is flatter and not as negative of a tilt. Without persistent, strong forcing, this will be more of a WWA event than anything else given the boundary layer temps. Someone can still sneak 6" out of the this, but the writing is on the wall for unlikely widespread WSW event. Having said that, it's not completely done by any means as we've seen crazier things happen with banding and these types of setups. Snow is snow, and it's better than nothing. I'll have a full update later this evening.

Noted! I'll try to pick a better basemap for the Final Call. I was hesitant on what to use, but now that I have some advice, I will use it. Gracias

I'll take an 8/10 everyday in a short time frame. Been doing better with the PPT map creation. Got the hang of things over course of trial and error. Gonna try to look for a better basemap. If you have any suggestions, feel free to give me a PM. Appreciate the critique!

Guys remember, I haven't looked at EVERYTHING and this was an on the fly forecast with a perusing through a few things. I may adjust numbers for a final call. For now, the thermal profile north and west of the fall line are pretty climo oriented, so just a matter of precip in liquid equivalent and potential banding during the best mid-level frontogen.

Still my first call and I'm at work, so I'll do a fine tooth comb and have a Final Call later today. Might make some adjustments. But in either case, this is a storm where banding will be key. You get a few good waves and 4" is easy money for my PA brethren

You really just gonna sub-context that to that person?

I want a @mappy grading of my map from a map creation standpoint, and a use of PowerPoint standpoint

Bryan? lol

Hey guys! Here's my first call map for the storm. Not everyone in here will be covered, but it shows the general idea!

Hey guys. First call map. I'll have a Disco later today with a Final Call tonight

It's fairly new. There's a few kinks to it however, one is the speed at which it updates while in use, but the GIS systems and overall physical appearance of data is pretty amazing.

There's a tool we can use at work that is experimental that incorporates the National Blend of Models and the Bias Corrected GFS to review multiple facets of data, including QPF, snow totals, snow QPF, ratios, etc. I can't show this because it's gov't use only and I'm not sure if they want it disseminated to the public. However, I will share what I'm seeing in terms of NBM QPF and snow ratios. As of the latest run this morning, the average snow ratios follow a traditional climo with perhaps a slight tick down than usual due to expected lower boundary layer warmth that will be present prior to storm arrival. 7-8:1 is the average I'm seeing on blended guidance for areas along Rt 50 up to central DE and @CAPE area. DC is a 7-8:1 in the metro proper, but you can see the improvement at times on the hourly time step when banding moves overhead with a 9-10:1 more common during those time frames. 9-10:1 is common for between Rt 50 and I-70 with 10-11:1 for areas out west of US15 and north of I-70. 12-14:1 is common out in the Mtns of the Alleghany front in WV into Western MD. QPF is pretty solid for a blend with 0.50" contour running through FDK with a direct SW to NE placement down the Blue Ridge into SoPa. 0.70" runs I-95, and 0.8+" is located on the eastern shore of MD into DE. Remember. this is a blend so there is a smoothed mean in the process, so banding potential will place lower/higher amounts in-between those contours outlined, but this is a general spread. Some of the QPF will be wasted to liquid in MOST spots, but I'm noticing areas north of I-70 and out west along the I-81 corridor will likely start as snow. I'll try to have an update later this afternoon, but I have the grids today, so I'll be busy later when I have to do the forecast.

The fact Midland doesn't have a Waffle House astounds me. I'd be there today if I had one. We do have a BOMB pancake house that makes literally everything from scratch. A little pricey but the taste is 5* breakfast. I oblige every now and then with the wife on weekend mornings.

Now I want waffles and I'm at work with no waffles. Thanks man

Today is the day where we SHOULD get some consistency in guidance in regards of the SLP positioning and overall evo of the UL pattern (25H jet, 5H vort, 85H low, etc). I'm a fan of the dynamic standpoint of the higher res guidance, but they are still not within the wheelhouse, imo, until the 12z runs today. They should have more weight carried with an ECMWF/EPS/GFS blend for the overall UL synoptic setup. I'll try to have a forecast for the storm later today. At work now, so sorry for the late response. Went right to bed after the NAM runs and the vax had me fatigued all evening.

I agree and I would think that's very much in the realm of possibility!

I agree. I think a general 1-4" NW of I-81 is the way to go with 4" chances obviously higher further to the SE. This is a SE LSV type storm. York/LNS/LanCo Hills are the ones that have the best chance to cash.

It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least.

Y'all ready for more snow?

That's the HREF! Here'a a link to it for reference and a great one to book mark https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

It's a CAM, so it can exaggerate in the synoptic scale due to convective feedback concerns that stem from latent heat release and localized pressure falls. @csnavywx touched on the limitations of the higher res models in a synoptic scale setup. It's okay in the short term (<24 hrs) as it can show banding characteristics, but it's prone to larger swings in guidance, especially SLP positioning. The NSSL is the same deal, although I found it to be not as jumpy with handling the surface reflection compared to the ARW/NMM. It is AWFUL with ULL though, so anything like that, avoid at all costs.

ARW was very amped. CAPE would absolutely despise this run for sure. I honestly want him to get hit. He's just barely missed so many times. Would be awesome for the I-95 crew though. There will be winners and losers like any other time. There will be winner and losers within 10-15 miles of each other with this kind of event. Band central