WxWatcher007

We approve of these crisp days and cold nights.

Still very concerned about flooding in that region should it get buried.

I do think we’re gradually turning the corner, but who knows where that brings us. At least now we see chances of rain on the guidance lol. Would love to see the moisture from future Sara get entrained in the trough next week. We could use a good soaking. Longish shot of that happening though.

And that applies across all facets of life.

He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November? I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. From a few days ago

I called for activity in November way back in August, but this has far exceeded my expectations.

The signals for TC genesis have come to fruition so far this November, and our backloaded season is likely to continue with another Caribbean signal, perhaps a significant one, appearing. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea: An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Reinhart

Low of 25.7°

Been below 32 for a while now. Currently 29.1°.

Time for another thread. Late season activity in the Caribbean and possibly into the Gulf as this potential we’ve tracked since late October looks to finally come to fruition. This time of year however, the Gulf looks more hostile. Discuss.

Low of 28.2°.

Rain! It’s a miracle!

I wonder how often the EPAC and Atlantic had 5s during the same season.

Did we even have that last year?

I’m not even sure I’ll have a winter. I used up my allotted wx miracle for one storm last season.

Hopefully not through March lol

I’m ready to move on to winter, but I figured a relatively late end to the season would be on the table. Haven’t really thought of track yet but getting trapped and shunted west under a strong ridge with an eventual trough to swing this northward would be bad news for someone.

Only .69" of rain here since August 20. Between June 1-Aug 19 I had 11.95" of rain. It's incredible.

We’ve gotten Caribbean activity as late as December. Overall climo is on the rapid downswing after about October 20, but the Caribbean can light up in active years. With SST/OHC still above average, low shear due to ENSO, and the MJO coming back around to promote rising air, we should get something to pop and it could become higher end. Nadine and Oscar overperformed in the region recently and I think the early November environment looks better than what they had. The question to me is how quickly can something consolidate. If it’s a broad mess like the Euro tries to depict it’s going to take a while to get something meaningful. A more GFS like solution gets us a larger bang to end the season.

I think it’s legit. It’s showing up strongly on ensembles. Timing is something that’s going to need to be sorted out. I think we’re still on the edge of the window to increase TWO odds, so I wouldn’t expect anything yet. Though I agree that there are meaningful odds in that region. The signal looks real to me. I don’t have the time to pull an analysis, but I think the GEFS has done an very good job overall identifying areas of tropical genesis, and has excelled against the EPS the last several years. While it has a well documented western Caribbean genesis bias, it has done exceptionally well this season imo once we can identify what the genesis source is—i.e. a well established CAG or tropical wave. One area of diminished performance has been timing. It has generally been a little fast in forecasting genesis in CAG situations. It looks like early November is a period to watch, especially if the upper level steering pattern looks anything close to what’s being depicted currently. I guess going into winter mode will have to wait a few weeks for me , but I expected that a few months ago.

Better than the Euro/EPS, especially at range. It’ll have its western Caribbean genesis bias but it has been particularly excellent in that region this year even with modest CAG setups. With the pattern cycling back to favorable and the EPS on board for development in early November, I think that genesis signal is real.

Swiftie for Halloween?

Foliage is a northeast staple lol, when it’s done right it’s about as awe inspiring as any wx event. (Not taken this year)