Right at average or slightly below normal with named storms. That would be a dramatic departure from the hyperactivity between 2017-24. It’s early of course.
It’s totally random, but it’s the best thing I saw today. I’ve always appreciated time but each year I get older I appreciate it more—especially considering the year me and my family has had.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/arts/music/dick-van-dyke-coldplay-all-my-love-video.html?
I’m not paying attention at all, but my gut says backloaded and dramatically quieter, particularly given the ongoing eastern MDR stability issues we’ve seen and possibility of a warm neutral ENSO. Way too early though as you said.
I agree in part. I think how we communicate wx definitely needs to continue evolving. A lot of people still think in a deterministic way rather than probabilistic. So if I’m a layperson and I read a NWS warning I’m going to (maybe) act on what’s in front of me.
However, downplaying because of uncertainty or prior history is problematic too. You want people to take reasonable actions to protect themselves. It doesn’t need to be on the verge of disastrous to be bad.
80-90mph winds are an order of magnitude worse and would be catastrophic if widespread. But there would be a hesitation to say that.
I don’t have an answer but I think it’s far more nuanced.