WxWatcher007

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Bay City, TX. The trip here took longer than anticipated, as I ran into hellacious storms just as my plane landed in Houston. Traveling from Houston to my destination was delayed as a result. I had to pull off the highway as water started flooding the road. Once I got here however, there was the eerie quiet that’s become all too familiar in my travels. The hospitality staff are hunkering down and are here with their families. Children play in the lobby as a local news broadcast describing the severe potential runs in the background. At the local Walmart, the updated position and forecast for Beryl played over the sound system. Something I’ve never heard before. Folks here are paying attention, but not overly bothered. I am here for at least tonight—as I’m hedging east until I get a better sense of the final approach. As you all know—I have no interest in documenting storm surge. My priority is getting into the most intense part of the storm safely away from water, and with rapid intensification possible I definitely want to be on the eastern side. Other potential locations include Port Lavaca (but a little concerned about surge given my staging location), Corpus Christi, and Edna, a small community due north of Port Lavaca. As usual, I’m in touch with @MillvilleWx in case I can’t post during the worst. I’ll provide updates when I can. Definitely want a successful chase (on my birthday weekend!) but it’s the first of what I think will be a few chases this season. This is my first Texas hurricane chase. Wish us all luck down here.

The first VDM of the night reveals that Beryl now has more than half of an eye, 16nm and circular, and open to the NW. I wouldn’t have expected that quadrant to be open. Also a fairly decent pressure drop. Down to 996mb.

That last part is what I’ve been thinking about a lot. It’s a relatively compact storm but has a very broad wind field. It’s entirely possible that intensification means more that the RMW contracts some but remains broad, rather than contracts a lot and is very intense at the core. I do think we need about 24 hours to have a real sense of which prevails. I do think a low end 3 remains plausible but unlikely. I think a Harvey like outcome is extremely unlikely. I’ll also say again that I think the angle of approach will also help to tighten this up near landfall.

Final VDM remarks. Kind of middling along with the pressure and surface winds, but… 40 PERCENT EYEWALL WITH SVR TURB WEST WINDS CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED

This is an excellent visual of the dry air it’s fighting currently. I actually think the southern portion looks ok, but it’s all fragile until everything is fully mixed out. I think the inflow on the eastern side could easily collapse things. Shear has been gradually pulling away but still lurking as well. Hard to see on the image above but SSTs only increase as it gets closer to the coast. That should make it increasingly easy for deep convection to fire.

While the pressure is relatively steady, recon now reports that there is a nascent eyewall trying to develop on the NW side. 40% per recon. Center is still elongated SE/NW. That’s interesting. Would need to hold onto the eyewall though as dry air/shear could easily reverse this process. Exact remarks below: 40 PERCENT EYEWALL NW ELONGATED CENTER AXIS SE/NW

Recon reports severe turbulence north of the center in the most recent VDM. Really have to see if this convective burst is enough to align the center and expel dry air. It looks robust enough to do it with sufficient time. You can easily see the dry air influence to the S and SW with arc cloud bursts.

It really took a beating. This is a really tough forecast and I wonder how many in the general public will take it seriously if it’s still a mess tomorrow and the track guidance keeps shifting.

Not much at home.

Importantly, tilted rather than fully decoupled.

A lot of spread.

Importantly, strengthening upon final approach. For the Texas crew following along, that’s far more impactful than if this were weakening as it did reaching the Yucatán.

I still think Corpus Christi is favored but honestly these north trends are significant. Hurricane models at 12z are split on how much Beryl recovers in the Gulf.

I’m not sure about landfall location yet, but I’m bullish. I think the combination of potential jet enhancement and frictional convergence near the coast could lead to a period of significant intensification. We of course have to see what it looks like after crossing the Yucatán, but any semblance of a core increases the chances it pulls itself together faster than anticipated. If shear is more pesky in the Gulf that could slow it down, but I don’t think that’s a high likelihood. That also reduces the likelihood dry air gets entrained in a meaningful way. One other thing to closely watch is the final approach heading. A more due north heading would have obvious implications on track and I believe intensity too. 12z spaghetti

The area between Brownsville and CC was where my mind was early today. I do still think we need to see what kind of core remains after Yucatán landfall. GFS Euro Spaghetti Hurricane models are all north, but not to the extent of the globals. These are just landfall points, but with a NW heading if this does get further north and scrape the coast I’d really watch for frictional convergence working to help organization and possibly intensification.

I know you’re looking at the 00z suite but the 18z EPS/Op were pretty significantly north (and quite strong) as well.

I get what Ryan is saying, but I’d caution against assuming all or even most other storms will be this resilient. Every system and environment is different.

12z Euro

Yeah on radar it’s ragged but clearly defined. Recon’s last VDM said the following but it keeps trying to rebuild. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... EYEWALL BCMG MORE RAGGED, WEAKNESS TO THE NE IN ADDITION TO BEING OPEN ON THE WEST Agree—going back to what I said earlier about the convection, this really has seemed to help Beryl maintain a minimum level of inner core stability sufficient for reorganization whenever shear tries to rip the vortex apart.

Still quite unsure whether I will make the trip down to Texas. A lot of track and intensity uncertainty at relative short range given the angle of approach. Currently thinking this does end up a little stronger and further north, but we need to see what the structure looks like after the Yucatan. Currently looking at somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Probably need a little more time to narrow that zone. @40/70 Benchmark

Thanks. Still a lot of uncertainty in the Gulf. We’ll see what the 12z hurricane model runs think on intensity and track.

It has weakened of course but the resilience has been impressive. Having a solid inner core has really been key to keeping Beryl an over performer. We have not seen nearly the erosion you’d expect under that ribbon of high shear. I think the shear being analyzed has been lesser in magnitude than what some guidance expected. Even lower shear can take a toll over time, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next day. One particular area of interest for me is convection. We’ve seen Beryl continue to fire deep convection that has been persistent enough to frequently wrap around the center, even if transiently. With very high OHC and SSTs on the path to the Yucatán, how much does this aid in maintaining the strength of the system? We will see how the landfall in the Yucatán impacts the core, as that’ll be critical to the intensity and track in the Gulf. It looks like there’s a decent consensus now, but it would not take much for slight shifts north or south. The Euro has maintained that this’ll be on the southern envelope of guidance. However, note that the stronger members are still further north. Meanwhile, much of the other guidance continues to settle further north, but the degree remains in question. Notably perhaps, many of this morning’s hurricane models shifted slightly north. We’ll see if that changes. Meanwhile other guidance is again near the border. The 00z super ensemble was further south of these models, but we’ll see if that changes at 12z. Any shifts, particularly with a NW heading likely, will have meaningful impacts.

The Euro run to run variation on intensity is just absurd. Much stronger on the western Gulf coast compared to 12z.