WxWatcher007

The disturbance off the SE coast may not develop, but the Atlantic ridge could help pump rainfall into the region and up the coast. If there’s a real EC threat, I think a retrograding or rebuilding ridge is the mechanism in August.

Recon flights are scheduled for tomorrow in case the area off the SE coast wants to get frisky. Currently getting blasted by shear.

Might get some good moisture in the region. Time and shear are the biggest inhibitors of this one. It’s getting blasted to hell currently by shear.

If you’re looking for a small wrench—here’s more detail on the SAL/stability potential. That said, even this doesn’t slow things down much.

Yikes. That is…robust…

Scandinavian nations ready to withdraw from NATO rather than deal with this heat and dews.

Guess he didn’t read pgs 24-36?

Folks this is a close to a seasonal hyperactive forecast lock as you can get. The only hopes are more stability/SAL driven into the basin by vigorous waves in August and weak Atlantic ridging/active early ECONUS troughing in September leading through October providing a highway for recurves. I’m not saying 1933 is walking through the door, but Beryl becoming a long track 5 was the canary in the coal mine, and the canary just passed out.

Man Phil was busy from the coast through Houston

85/80 with a HI of 99 currently in Bay City. Heading home today.

From Bahama blues to a Bahamas runner up the coast later this summer?

I looked and you can see a SST decline across the basin using the TT time series analysis plots. That’s interesting. That said, SSTs are anomalously warm and OHC remains absurdly high in the MDR. I think the train is moving along on a hyperactive season.

Good catch. Hagen pointed it out so maybe we get a new map. I like the layout.

Just getting to this—as you probably know now, Bay City. Ended up being a great call. Never needed to reposition. Thanks for the advice. More than you asked for, but I bring steel toe boots on every chase to avoid broken glass and debris, and I’m conservative about standing near anything that could be dangerous. I also do my best to have any other supplies I need come from outside the storm zone to reduce the strain on stores in the area. I try to be as responsible, respectful, and helpful as possible whenever I chase tropical.

Haha I was just about to post the same thing. Power just restored here. Wow at the severe outbreak today.

Yesterday it was 88/80 with a HI of 105. Heat hits different down here.

Absolutely. Once I saw the guidance start to tick north when it was forecasted to hit Mexico, it was wheels up to Houston. Almost certainly will not be the last chase opportunity this season. This was my 14th tropical chase. You have to be willing to hang back post storm though. Currently a heat index of 96° with no power.

For those interested.

For those interested. Very very solid storm. Had to hold a window in my room up during the first half of the eyewall after it blew in. Would’ve lost it had I not been at the window documenting the eyewall.

Bay City direct eye intercept. Near nonexistent signal. Will post again when I can. If I weren’t at my window recording the eyewall my window would’ve been gone. A secondary gust after the power went out required me to use both hands to keep the thing from blowing in. Never any risk of shattering. Some structural damage out here but manageable. https://i.imgur.com/ONBSonL.jpeg

Extremely low signal. I’m ok. Significant but manageable damage. https://i.imgur.com/ONBSonL.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/iHLwFcA.jpeg

Lightning showing up on the western side of the eyewall right now. Still quiet here.

Minimum pressure of 979.8 & 980.3 on my devices.