WxWatcher007

Yeah I think that probably continues to be a limiting factor but just note guidance has become more aggressive with intensification recently. With a favorable UL wind environment that can help keep nearby dry air from getting imparted. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with this one, but it continues to look legit to me.

100% I still lean heavily with the EPS and more EC potential. Even before convection started it looked like the wave axis was a little north to allow for the well west GFS solutions, though E GOM should definitely follow this. Still very early to make definitive track or intensity statements but the environment in the western Atlantic looks quite favorable for intensification—which is why I think we’re seeing an uptick in intensity from the GFS op and EPS. Nothing crazy, but notable given the environmental factors ahead.

It’s a very favorable environment in the western Atlantic, but the size of the wave and dryness aloft has kept this from popping quickly. I’d still say it’s unlikely anything happens in our neck of the woods but the SE is definitely in the game and we (and Atlantic Canada) should keep a casual eye on it. I don’t think the GFS Gulf solutions are viable given the convective activity we’re starting to see north of the Antilles but we’ll see if that activity leads to earlier development.

Congrats again Atlantic Canada on the Euro But seriously, our only chance for anything other than cirrus is for the ridge to drive this into the Carolinas and then NE. Even then, remnants are a long shot. Maybe we can get a PRE out of it in SNE while Stein cradles Dendy to sleep lol.

Quite robust as it hooks northeast. Euro remains the most aggressive guidance clearly.

You really want to look at the 5 day to see the change but the environment is gradually moistening. There’s been lower level pooling in the wave so as it continues wrapping in moisture from the ITCZ that should help as the wave gets to warmer waters. The western Atlantic looks favorable but the wave is so large and dry aloft it’ll take time to organize. I still think the GFS is way too far west with this. It looks like a SE coast/recurve to me eventually.

What’s happening here?

The evolution of this one still looks in line with thoughts a few days ago. Just need to watch for when convection develops (probably next few days) and whether the vorticity tightens.

Yeah that’s a kicker look

Or snow in Las Vegas

I’m following a little more closely now. Lines up with my thought that we’d start to see activity in early August, though earlier than I expected. The steering pattern—while long range—seems interesting. I think more for the Atlantic than the Gulf.

**this is speculative discussion on a long range op run** If you’re looking for a NE threat, the 12z Euro is probably how you do it. I doubt there’s a classic cutoff over the GL Region to draw up a Long Island Express, but a stronger/more expansive ridge and weaker/slower trough should guide something around the periphery of the ridge.

If folks up here want to track tropical, they should probably wait until the watches are up. So many things can kick things east or keep stuff south. SE coast probably due for a hit or two this season if ridging holds into September.

Ridge placement will matter a lot. Fantasy out at this range of course.

Starting to watch now.

I don’t think the timing climo matters as much these days if we’re talking August. Just a few years ago we had Isaias in early August. You just need the right steering pattern and importantly…an actual system that’s developed. I wouldn’t summarily dismiss a US threat (even if not NE lol) with this lemon. This seems like a fairly classic case where models catch up to the likely more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic tied with a well timed CCKW passage. It’s not much today, but it’s definitely worth a casual watch right now imo.

Hadn’t been following until now but on first real glance the Atlantic lemon looks legit. Whether it’s a threat to the US remains to be seen but it may be given the steering pattern next week.

Always funny to see the Euro more aggressive with TCG than the GFS.

About 30 years, yeah.

I still don’t see much reason to question a high NS year. I think we’re all in alignment on H/MH—there will be a lot. @GaWx I think 21+ is still doable, and I think unlike some other years we could certainly tack on a few November NS in the Caribbean given the extraordinary warmth and likely Nina conditions firmly in place by then. I think we’re back to NS developing that first week to ten days of August.

Impressive

It can be as fast as an atmospheric switch flip in August and September. We see that even in mediocre years. To your second question, it’s both, but the unfavorable MJO also promotes stability in addition to sinking air over the basin, which combined with it being the climatological peak of SAL, kills everything in the usual intraseaonal annual lull. The following images are from Michael Lowry. Note the massive spike of SAL in July with a rapid (albeit still high) decline. With the coming MJO change I’d expect SAL to be below the climatological norm by mid August even with additional SAL pulses. I should also note that if we do see early August activity, especially if it’s higher end, that’s also likely a harbinger of things to come. Research shows that this period has actually been an annual nadir since the AMO flip in the 90s.

I think the SST and OHC anomalies make it much more likely we have a November extension just like 2020, but obviously ASO are prime time for US impacts. Hyperactive still looks as close to a lock as you can get to me. Even if the wake up is delayed to say mid August.

I lived in SC for a bit so I’m used to the heat and humidity. For me, days along the river or those evening BBQs with fireflies humming about are peak summer to me. Winter by itself without snow isn’t normal though. I get what you’re saying though about outdoor activities. Perhaps when I’m older I’ll feel differently. This is my outlook on life too so I’m pretty consistent on the take it as it comes mindset. Not saying it’s better or worse than anybody else’s. Just how I’ve always been even as a kid.

Yeah, I’d expect another NS that first week of August I think.