WxWatcher007

Very early. Might make later less robust.

Probably the most impactful strike since 2004?

This is robust to say the least

Umm, let’s just talk weather, please. Extrapolated pressure down to 963.3mb. Awaiting center dropsonde.

Keep in mind that’s an extrapolated pressure per the VDM. That said, it’s probably dropping like a rock still.

Yeah I’m fine with it either way. After the last week I think folks around here know to take these kind of days seriously—at least you’d think.

Meanwhile the SPC keeps talking about supercells in Maine lol

Enhanced on the latest SPC update.

I’d bet the opposite. I’m thinking there’s at least 1 EC threat and a fair amount of remnant activity. I guess we’ll see. Beryl continues to be in rarified territory becoming the first major hurricane of the 2024 season.

Per dropsonde, the central pressure is down ~1mb since the VDM.

The OG of invests in an extremely active late June basin is worthy of a thread too, though there may not be as much post activity here. A broad area of low pressure has traversed the Yucatán and has now entered the Bay of Campeche. This is the third invest to reach the BoC and threaten the Mexican Gulf coast. There’s not a lot of time for this to organize into a significant wind producer, but once again heavy rains are expected. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today. 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): An area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

While most of the focus will be on Major Hurricane Beryl the next few days, the highly anomalous environment that triggered Beryl’s development is also in place for newly designated Invest 96L. This could very well be another robust tropical cyclone that threatens the Antilles by midweek. Depending on the overall ridging over the Atlantic next week, this one could gain latitude as it tracks through the Caribbean in a greater fashion than Beryl—if it survives the trek. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:41Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 11:12:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 10.49N 53.76W B. Center Fix Location: 435 statute miles (700 km) to the ESE (115°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,868m (9,409ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.62 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 13kts (From the S at 15mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 108kts (From the NE at 124.3mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (141°) of center fix at 11:14:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 227° at 101kts (From the SW at 116.2mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix at 11:15:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) from the flight level center at 11:08:30Z General Note About Vortex Messages: - SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

Thanks—as you know, always respect your thoughts. We know that the usual June and July sloppy named storm means nothing for the season, but seeing Beryl do this in the context of what has already been a busy season (even if the other invests weren’t named) is a gigantic red flag for what likely lies ahead. We’re not there yet, but I’m increasingly concerned that the Caribbean and possible shear won’t meaningfully slow this down. In a departure from the 12z run, the Euro keeps the buzzsaw going after a brief weakening to take this into Belize/Yucatán before a final hit in the most active tropical hot spot on the planet right now on the Gulf coast of Mexico. Caveats galore, folks: GFS And the newest Euro

The shear will be there, it’s just a question of the magnitude.

It depends on what nada means haha. If it’s no direct hit up the bay, then yes, that’s a great bet. If it’s significant impacts from a nearby TC or TC remnants that’s another story.

Beryl has a chance to really go to town in the next 24-36 hours. Folks in the islands need to be prepared for a significant hit. Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle. After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates. As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane. Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110 kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do peak Beryl stronger than shown here. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

HRRR looks robust with multiple line segments in CT tomorrow.

The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it. Here’s a nice illustration of that

Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though.

Really do think there’s considerable uncertainty over what happens in the Caribbean. A lot will depend on the magnitude of the shear. These systems can get decapitated by high shear, particularly this time of year, but if shear is slightly weaker than modeled and Beryl does establish the kind of inner core necessary of a major hurricane, it could be more resilient in the face of the shear and possible drier air. I know I was bearish at the start regarding Caribbean prospects, but I do think this hangs on a little better than I originally anticipated. That has implications on downstream steering obviously as a stronger system tends to drift poleward. Judging by the NHC forecast, this is still a viable hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatán, or if it drifts northward, the Gulf.

Yeah it’s definitely possible