WxWatcher007

Too lazy to run gifs, but it’s a really nice evolution even of the coast looks dicey verbatim. I mean obviously it’s one op and whatever but the main takeaway to me is that something exotic is legitimately on the table. It reminds me of a high end tropical development signal. Obviously apples and oranges but just look at 500mb and you see very high potential if everything comes together.

I’d absolutely play with fire to have a shot at that.

Plenty of potential on the euro.

Indeed, but the question is whether those ingredients get added to the mixing bowl in the right proportions. 00z doesn’t really change my cautious optimism. Razor’s edge is what we do now so I’m not expecting consistently beautiful 500mb depictions.

Been hovering at 30° here so much warmer, but we never got above freezing today. I do wonder how many days my area can string together. Same here. Always been a night owl.

Sooner

Amazing how we can go from brawling to kumbaya in the span of a couple hours.

We should have more fun around here. Somewhere I still have the epic euro run from Feb 2013 and a handful of tropical nukes.

True. I’d rather be looking at this though at range than cold/dry, and the general signal for high end potential has remained for the better part of a week now so that’s a reason to be slightly more optimistic that a storm is a real possibility.

What in the hell is going on here?

It’s one of those situations around here where I think for most even some accumulating LES streamer or NS clipper that pops and produces a light event would revive some hope for the season and satiate snow starved weenies until the useless block relaxes some.

At the risk of being admonished for not being positive enough, I’m kidding, for the record. We just need to get as many swings as possible. If we completely whiff, which I still doubt we will, it is what it is. By whiff I mean no region wide warning level event.

Cold/dry to warm/wet?

It’s good to know that after all these years you are still an absolutely insane human being.

Yeah I actually don’t hate the look. Forget the surface maps.

That’s really helpful, thanks.

Happy to take any snow you’re too good for in this poverty pattern.

Why does the GFS try to hang back so much here? That seems odd to me?

The 1/6 thing seems gone, but the GFS is trying to run a wave from the SE around the 11th. It’s a weird 500mb depiction though.

I mean if we’re being honest in SNE at least, even if we fell short of climo by 10-20% we’d probably take that as a win and have more hope for the next winter.

Maybe? Not to derail the thread but I’m not sure that for most the expectation is historical storm/season or bust. Climo is kind of objective. I average 45-50 a year and I can’t crack 15” without luck. That’s objectively bad. It’s made worse when we get these gorgeous 500mb looks that we exhaustively talk about (which we should—unnecessary pessimism is just as bad as gaslighting optimism) but then bring buffalo a superstorm or fade in time for us to enjoy cutters or some other fail mode. If we had a normal winter, I don’t think anyone reasonable would complain.

I mean I’m not bothered by people talking about what ensembles say at range. They are legitimately useful. But I think there is a little suspension of disbelief or positivity bias that happens in winter when we talk about snow chances specifically. You don’t even see it when we talk about cold and especially not with ice lol. No slight at anyone. We’re basically all here for good snowy winters. Maybe it’s a human nature thing.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for a wintry February either (not saying you necessarily are). I never expected to bat 1.000 here but it seems ominous that this fabled wonderful pattern could very well keep our average of significant region wide events at 0.000. Every year we get these beautiful 500h depictions and play the mental gymnastics to convince ourselves that this time it’ll be different from all the other failures, and it never is. Last month and your near normal snowfall notwithstanding, it’s been all or nothing for years around here and it’s been nothing more often than not, especially from a regional perspective.

I’m not sure there’s any coming back from that.