WxWatcher007

Rainfall rate briefly peaked at 2.62”/hr here

We pour

High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity. Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right. Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer. Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself.

Congratulations on an all timer of a chase. There’s no price too high for a true once in a lifetime experience. That’s incredible. Horrifying and incredible.

Wheeeee Congrats to the thriving moss imby.

Could moss just get replaced by adding a shade wildflower/grass?

46 definitely isn’t mild. Isn’t that close to climo? A high of 62 here is a different story. Much more cloudy here now after a pretty sunny afternoon.

Where’s Pope to talk about the temp bust? 62 and sunny here. Great day out.

That was wild. Looking toward Hartford NYC

It has been obscenely active in the Gulf, but aside from Isaias, the East Coast has been spared. Fiona could’ve been legit if the mid level pattern were slightly different and obviously Henri further west could’ve been more impactful here. I do think that this season will feature a more consistent Atlantic ridge and WAR but at this stage that’s fairly speculative.

People have been here for decades and still can’t understand it. The morality stuff is tedious.

Spectacular day. 65.4° with ample sun and a nice little breeze.

Yup—there’s always people that are completely unaware of a forecast or what’s happening.

Man, this looks not ideal.

Unless it’s 1888 I don’t want it

It does, so it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s still technically winter and as we know March has been more of a winter month than December in recent years. I won’t rain on anyone’s parade if it happens but I’ve definitely moved on to desiring the warmth of spring.

It’d be such BS. Winter had its chance and failed. Again. It’s time for spring. Thank you.

Good temp drop. Meh otherwise.

56.1° here

It's a pretty worthless number coming on Feb 26, but if I had to place odds on 200+ ACE (and for those not tuned into tropical it’s only occurred 8 times since 1851 and last happened in 2017) I’d put it at ~20% given what I see now. In an absolute sense that’s a small chance but measured against climo that’s a big number. As an aside, 1893 and 1926 are incredible ACE seasons (231 & 230) where there were only 12 and 11 NS respectively. Talk about degree of difficulty.

I don’t pay attention to the correlation between ACE and winter seasons, but my initial thought as we approach tropical preseason is that the Atlantic will be historically (let’s say top 10 for now and choose your metric—it won’t matter IMO) active. Unlike the last few seasons which started with significant questions or mitigating factors to diminish potential, this coming season appears to be all systems go as long as we don’t see a lagging atmospheric response from the decaying Nino.

With historic rains in between. Can't make it up.