WxWatcher007

Quasi at best. Totally agree.

If you think this is bad just wait until the AMO rubber band snaps back and we can't get a cloud swirl for 30 years. It wasn't close. A recurve was locked for days once we knew that trough in Canada wasn't going to be progressive. It's only the sheer size of Erin that makes it impactful. Still, at least we got enough of a trend to probably get some TS gusts at the coast.

Thanks. I wish I had the JJA number, so at least I had more confidence in inferring what the ASO number would be.

My annual forecast just looks at the peak, which is Aug 20-Oct 20. Hope to have it out later today.

Here's a loop of the last ten hours of Erin, as it enters its final act along the east coast. Note how dramatically the size of Erin has changed in just a short period of time.

@GaWx where's your excellent piece on RONI and US landfalls? Do you have numbers for this season and where that stacks up with recent years? Working on my peak season forecast today and would like to include that in my final section.

Still some strong winds aloft, but the need to rebuild convection and the expanding wind field has taken a toll on maximum surface winds

Someone probably gets a few inches of rain, I just think it's to our north or south

Maybe this quasi-PRE can produce and someone floods tomorrow.

Watches extended a little further north.

Yeah it’s not looking good. I have my peak season forecast due tomorrow and I’m still not sure which direction I’ll go in.

Posting for others to see. I know it’s there and that every system is different, but Erin was able to get past SAL and develop. Even this wave has convective activity. But the 12z GEFS signal declined near the Antilles too. Maybe it doesn’t develop, or maybe it’s a late developer. I lean toward the latter at this point, with the SW Atlantic being more favorable perhaps.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Cape Charles Light Virginia.

I could see a TS watch for a place like Nantucket tomorrow given the wind field. Definitely. Shear and dry air taking a toll, though models try to restrengthen it some as it moves northward and maybe finds more favorable upper level winds. Everyone has struggled with Erin’s intensity forecast to an extent—upwards and downwards. Goes to show we still have a lot to learn.

Erin has taken a real beating between the shear and drier air. Although the Euro tries to return Erin to some semblance of former glory, the HAFS bring down the pressure respectively, but the wind field expands without much in the way of significant intensification, to @NorthHillsWx's point.

Not quite sure what to make of the operational models backing off development when the ensembles still have a pretty robust signal for TC genesis. Erin's evolution will have a big impact on what happens with this one.

Yes. The ops are just fantasy but the ensembles show a pattern that could be conducive. Everything is always low probability for here so there’s no need for folks to get riled up.

Yup…now that would be funny

Happy hour on 18z GFS lol

I’m not so sure the Euro has that right but we’ll see. It’s not the prettiest trough/ridge combo but it’s better than what we have today lol. I can definitely see that wave struggling to consolidate until it gets past 60W.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

Posted in the tropical subforum, but HAFS and Euro really moved west at 12z. Whether that's actually true we'll see, but it would likely bring TS gusts to the coast.

Odds up at 2pm Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing limited disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts