WxWatcher007

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southern part of the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week. Afterward, some gradual development is possible while the system drifts generally eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Roberts

It’s likely a legit signal at this point but there’s still a ton to sort out on where TC genesis occurs. Both ensembles spin something up.

I’d be shocked if 91E weren’t a TC at the next update.

Ensemble signal on the EPS/GEFS looks solid as well for this range. Need a little more time to figure what the seed for development looks like, whether it’s the actual EPAC system per the Euro or some other area of vorticity a la GFS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 551 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia... Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia... Southeastern Amherst County in central Virginia... The southeastern portion of City of Lynchburg in central Virginia... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 550 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bocock, or near Rustburg, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lynchburg... Appomattox... Concord... Rustburg... Appomattox National Historic Park... Riverville... and Stonewall. This includes The following Locations Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the same area. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

That’s a big time storm. The one to the north of it is rotating too.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 101 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Baltimore City in northern Maryland... North central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 101 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over South Gate, or over Severn, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Severna Park around 105 PM EDT. Ferndale and Green Haven around 110 PM EDT. Riviera Beach, Sparrows Point, Fort Smallwood State Park, North Point State Park, Glen Burnie, Dundalk, Pasadena, Lake Shore and Brooklyn Park around 115 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fort Howard, Gambrills, Edgemere and Turners Station. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

That’s helpful, thanks.

Called it.

Anything specific in those two areas? A park?

^ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1102 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1130 AM EDT. * At 1102 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bumpass, or 7 miles east of Mineral, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Spotsylvania and Massaponax around 1130 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Glenora, Post Oak, Gatewood, Brokenburg, Snell and Alsop. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

As horrifically boring as this wx has been, it’s been beautiful out here with everything green again.

Both the Euro and GFS have an increasingly legitimate signal for TC genesis in this the Gulf and/or SW Atlantic next week.

Euro develops that area we were discussing a while back in the EPAC and drives it north into the Gulf as a trough scoops it up. GFS is wild this time of year lol

Unsurprisingly, the NOAA hurricane season forecast still calls for another above active season. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season We will have our first quiet May since 2014 but I do think we’ll have a window in early June for our first named storm.

What a beast in Texas right now.

You can’t let me have one cat two cane with a tractor tire eye that rolls over some sparsely populated, but chaseable land?

Not a bad look on radar, but it’s heading onshore now.

First lemon of the year. Well defined circulation as it comes onshore tonight. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. North Central Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. This system is producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and strong upper-level winds should prevent significant development before this system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast later tonight or on Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast and will spread across the southeast U.S. during the next day or so. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

Good stuff today. That cell that blew up south of Springfield was nice for a while. This was looking north from East Hartford as it was starting to build southwest.

Anything good?