I think the gfs has become a good tropical model, and in some ways, better than the euro, but it can get too ahead of itself in tropical genesis this time of year in the western Caribbean.
This graphic is dated since we’ve seen preseason activity every year basically since this but climo favors western Caribbean. If you don’t get activity squashed into the eastern pacific, as is usually the case this early when high pressure dominates the southeast.
This far out, I’m not buying yet, but I have one eye on it. I’m probably at a 2/10 in terms of interest right now.