WxWatcher007

I know they have been burned, a lot, by waves this year, but the NHC should probably tag this one for tracking. It has a significant signal for TC genesis across guidance and the environment does look conducive for development once Fiona gets out of the way.

Looks like deep convection is firing and trying to wrap around the eye again.

I'm probably running behind on NS, but I still feel pretty good about my forecast, especially with half of my hurricane forecast verifying and Fiona likely to attain MH status (though that was also the case with Earl and to a lesser extent Danielle). Still think we see an active period late September into early October as we move into homebrew season. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (3)Hurricanes: 6 (3)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

It looks like the eye will be out over the Atlantic in the next few hours based on Fiona's current heading on radar.

It looked very close last night, but he nailed the eye.

Both the GFS and Euro have western Caribbean activity late this week/early next week.

Looks like the structure really pulled itself together right after I went to bed. Very impressive radar and IR appearance.

Whew, Fiona would go nuclear for a bit if that jet stream evolution played out.

I definitely think this is a threat for Atlantic Canada. The EPS has been most west, while the GFS has waffled between a NF hit and scrape just to the east. Regardless, both the operational and ensemble guidance has been throwing out some very deep lows as this gains latitude.

EPS have been consistent. GEFS too to an extent but being further east means it's close between a NF hit and barely wide right.

He's done all he can. If the heading continues he may miss the eyewall too but he's right on the edge. There are some really extraordinary rain totals coming out of PR and they have a long way to go. This is from one of my former coworkers that has family there. The family is ok fortunately.

Best show on TV, each and every week. With money on the line too for countless fans between fantasy, pick 'em and straight betting lol.

I think the great thing about football is the scarcity of it. Every game matters so you need to watch. It adds to the drama. There's not a ton of drama to me watching a MLB game in May, June, July, and August. Everybody's different though.

My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not. But we'll see.

Just south of due west

18z Euro does push this a little further west and closer to the Turks and Caicos. I'd definitely be watching closely there with this westward jog. Recon is also out doing high altitude sampling of the environment ahead. Any adjustments in the steering pattern would be important for the islands, Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada.

It has been years since I've watched a whole regular season MLB game. Playoffs are fun though.

This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether. It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm.

1-12 in pick ‘em after winning week 1. Absolutely unbelievable.

Unfortunately the slow and steady angle of approach is pretty much a worst case scenario from a flooding perspective. The core has only clipped the higher terrain, it is not weakening. But it's driving the southerly feed of moisture off the Carribean right over the island, with orographic enhancement. Maria was horrible and I don't want to say Fiona will eclipse that in impacts. But it may outperform even Georges from a flooding event. This is looking really bad. Yeah, this is about the worst case rainfall scenario for PR. The videos coming out are already really bad.

It’s gone. You’d need to see a massive shift in the steering pattern to make this a continental US threat. @Hazey and Nick should be watching though. The globals have a mean low up there next weekend. For now.

It looks like interaction with PR didn’t slow down organization much at all. I hope the DR is ready for this one.

Atlantic Canada will need to watch this too as the guidance tries edging this more northward as it interacts with the midweek trough.

My lord these late game collapses have me with my worst pick ‘em early afternoon ever.

Atlantic Canada still very much in it, though it’d likely be going extratropical by then.