WxWatcher007

Is there a place where I can get detailed historical SST plots for the region? This is OT from the heat/humidity/drought, but 26C seems much further north than usual, though there's no depth under that.

Agree. Certainly nothing in the modern era (though I'm not as strong with my memory lol) and not in an age where it's so easy to designate short duration systems. At any rate, the 0/0/0 thing is a red herring. I still believe it'll be above average, but an underperformer is still on the table if we can't get instability to pick up in the eastern and central Atlantic (which I think it will, though not drastically enough to be hyperactive). It's getting better, but it's still very ugly out in the tropical Atlantic. You can't sugarcoat that. I think the western Atlantic is almost a lock to be active in late August and into September however, where virtually everything that speaks to an active period seems aligned. The caveat is the location of troughs that could make shear unfavorable for development from time to time, but that's normal. If you get strong AEWs into the western Atlantic, even with an underperforming tropical Atlantic, things will pop in this environment. I feel very confident saying that. Keep in mind that in recent years the bulk of high end activity has been focused in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models failing to explicitly show tropical genesis at this range means fairly little to me right now when looking at the overall western Atlantic environment. SST Anomaly OHC Instability--note how the environment is rebounding after the nadir in late July. Vertical Shear (850-200mb)--same as above: look at how the environment has broadly improved significantly since the truly dead pattern in July. Preseason is over. The climate models have limited utility at this point IMO. Global ensembles are going to need to be used in tandem with current environment analysis. Ensembles will show signals, and the environment will show whether the signal is noise or presents a tangible threat.

And I usually don’t take the bait, but that’s just outrageously unlikely.

0/0/0 in September ain’t happening. You can book that.

When it comes to shear, the intensity and direction can matter a lot. For most systems, light shear can be overcome, but moderate to high shear can keep an Invest from developing and hold even well developed systems in check. Sometimes, the direction of shear can actually help the low ventilate and strengthen. A great recent example of this was Isaias, which muddled along in the western Atlantic and was first sheared by a with southwesterly shear until it started changing its direction to the NNE, which allowed for the shear to become a help rather than a hinderance. Here, while there is definitely shear around, it looks like the wave is going to come off Africa at a low enough latitude where shear shouldn't be too much of an issue early on. (image time sensitive) I think the bigger issues early on may be mid-level dry air and some residual instability and fast forward motion, with shear an issue by the time it gets to the Antilles. Our orange needs convection and a nice moisture envelope to develop the way the GFS tries to predict. (Image time sensitive) It's a messy image, but note the central Atlantic near the islands. There's an upper low that imparts some significant westerly/SW shear on the low and it really tears it up. This far out though, those kind of placements really are hard to predict accurately.

It’s really the best!

I love the cam. Does it come with a time lapse feature or did you have to put that together yourself?

Just came across this

No time to waste with my move scheduled for next week. Out here redoing the walkway and laying paver base. Rough heat but it actually feels pretty good to be dripping sweat. It’s how I know I’m alive.

Lemon on the wave expected to move off Africa this weekend.

…annnnd we’re back. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Reinhart

Congratulations

Dream climate for Kev?

Yeah, the signal was subtle but may be getting stronger. Let’s see what rolls off Africa.

It looks like they moved the daily plots behind a wall about a month ago, which is a damn shame. You could really see how things lined up compared to past years.

It will. I think.

Not there yet, but the basin is starting to look better and the guidance is hinting subtly at some activity as we approach mid month.

Told you. Rough watching north and south cash in.

Heat fail down here tbh. GFS and Euro keep pumping out fraudulent hundos in CT.

They’re getting obliterated. It’s going to get ugly there soon if it hasn’t already.

Nice!

I think we both know the answer to that As soon as the first cell popped up and looked stationary I knew that was trouble. That’s a lot of water in a short period.