WxWatcher007

Best of luck. What’s your seasonal average out there?

We tried to tell ‘em

Be careful what you wish for lol

First map I've seen from BUF. Looks like an absolutely frigid night east of Ontario. Decided against heading west for this one, but with the pattern LEK highlighted earlier, it won't be long until it's WxWatcher Wagons West

Yes. Our sanity.

I was all set with anomalous warmth when the January 2020 blowtorch rolled through. 70 in January is the wrong kind of obscene to me.

I know I'm in the minority lol.

Euro has been a little aggressive with the cold from what I've seen the last few weeks, but that's a big boy Arctic shot. If we're going to screw up all the snow threats, bring on the epic cold.

We kid of course.

See more snow?

Can't make it up Snow is serious business.

He beat me to it! Anyway--even if there is a brief mix I think it's fine. We want a glacier after a synoptic event

Just look at the fronto on the GFS. Thing of beauty. I think the mixing risk is overdone this far inland. Soundings from the GFS @ 84. While ART is absolutely cooking here verbatim, I think each major location has a period of very efficient snow growth. Rates should be quite nice. Maybe not high end LES but plenty good for synoptic.

Setting aside that it's the NAM at range, you see a couple things that stand out here. First, the lift is quite impressive. Whatever falls looks to be heavy. Verbatim, it looks like things are right on the edge aloft with temps near freezing, and I do spy a bit of a warm nose right around 850mb. Not sure I'd be worried about mixing unless we saw the 700mb low screaming right overhead. The globals don't really introduce mixing into the region but has a rather uniform (and beautiful) deformation that traverses WNY.

It’s a hellacious thump lol. There’s some big omega in the soundings within that band.

Yeah, that just looks like high end deformation to me.

Sorry—was just trying to answer the question with the visual lol. Don’t disagree with any of the analysis.

Right around 30” for BUF

Really nice synoptic hit out there. Wagons west for me this weekend?

This morning was classic. Weenies left and right drinking and sobbing and panicking

962mb too. What a nuke.

One more meme out of you and we’ll exile your retired arse to the Alaska subforum. Haven’t heard of it? That’s the point.