WxWatcher007

Long may it wave. Happy 4th, everyone.

Did you call into work today? I hope you had a great fourth!

Spectacular day.

As boring as it is, it’s nice. Keep the trough for now while Atlantic climo is meh and then flip to a ridge over the top and Great Lakes trough in August and September when tropical season kicks into high gear.

Outstanding photograph

That cell NE of Springfield is looking nice too now

Indeed. Of course the best storms of the season are likely with me out of state for the weekend. Good luck.

Idk if that one’s for you, Wiz. I’ve seen this too many times in my location.

That cell in NW CT is nice.

A very boring summer

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Corrected advisory number Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or so. Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. Track guidance is in good agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast. Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a relatively shallow depth. For this reason, intensification is forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of intensification is forecast to increase. Similar to the previous forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific, product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from AL022022 to EP042022. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Watching tropical cyclone genesis is always so neat. 96L was persistent. Now let’s see what happens with Bonnie as it achieves the rare crossover. Although it has underperformed for most of its time in the Atlantic, it has overperformed in the last day. Look at this structure.

Always fascinating to watch TC genesis. Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

60% now… Near the South Carolina Coast: Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the small low pressure system located along the coast of South Carolina is producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds primarily to the southeast of its center over water and near the immediate coast. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted near the area of low pressure over the last 6 to 12 hours. If the associated showers and thunderstorms persist and continue to become better organized, then this system could become a tropical storm later today while moving northeastward along the South Carolina coast, and then reaching the North Carolina coast by tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas over the weekend. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. Further information on the system, including offshore gale warnings, can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Thanks! Yes, the crossovers are pretty uncommon.

Some good storms over NY right now. That one near Pittsfield was a good one too.

NHC taking note. This is a really impressive invest for having this much land interaction. With a weak LLC over the coast and deep convection firing offshore with obvious rotation, this one could pick up a name as it moves northeast. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1150 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure system along the South Carolina coast. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bonnie, located near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Near the South Carolina Coast: Updated: Recent surface observations indicate that a small low pressure system located just inland to the west of Charleston, South Carolina, is producing localized areas of winds to tropical storm force along the South Carolina coast. This system is expected to move northeastward along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts over the weekend, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form if the center of the low remains close enough to the Atlantic waters during that time. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas over the weekend. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

It’s cool. It’s easy to do. Just go to the original post and hit edit in the menu on the top right. You can just change to Tropical Storm Bonnie, and when it becomes a hurricane change it again to note its maximum intensity.

Now that’s incredible.

96L along the SC coast is now producing TS wind gusts.

Wow, starting to see gusts over 40kts now. This invest is the real deal lol.

Recon confirms nascent eyewall trying to close off before landfall. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 1:38ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: BonnieStorm Number: 02 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 1:22:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 11.01N 83.38WB. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (479 km) to the WNW (298°) from Panama City, Panama.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 10kts (From the S at 12mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the eastG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the NW (318°) of center fix at 1:21:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 50kts (From the ENE at 57.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NW (318°) of center fix at 1:20:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 40kts (46.0mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the E (82°) of center fix at 1:24:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 140° at 46kts (From the SE at 52.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 1:26:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) which was observed 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) from the flight level center at 1:20:30Z