WxWatcher007

Probably good for some decent wind at the coast too.

It is my birthday, weenies, and I demand that you celebrate this day with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one end of the Mid-Atlantic to the other. I shall also accept payment via Venmo, and Bitcoin, and sudden rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida. The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for the Cuban province of Camaguey. The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

It’s unflagged but bad data.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 11:24ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 10:40:04ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.29N 80.64WB. Center Fix Location: 61 statute miles (99 km) to the SSW (192°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,144m (10,315ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 19kts (From the SSW at 22mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 52kts (59.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix at 10:21:43ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 105° at 30kts (From the ESE at 34.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 10:31:26ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix at 10:44:36ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 195° at 42kts (From the SSW at 48.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 11:09:33ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,144m (10,315ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:09:33Z

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX. Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Artemisa.

Still has a long way to go but slowly getting it together…for now at least..

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 4th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 18.8N 77.0W Location: 56 statute miles (89 km) to the NNW (347°) from Kingston, Jamaica. Marsden Square: 044 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1012mb (29.89 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.3°C (76°F) 65° (from the ENE) 11 knots (13 mph) 1000mb 107m (351 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 23.6°C (74°F) 60° (from the ENE) 12 knots (14 mph) 925mb 789m (2,589 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 18.6°C (65°F) 65° (from the ENE) 6 knots (7 mph) 850mb 1,519m (4,984 ft) 17.0°C (62.6°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 265° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph) 700mb 3,161m (10,371 ft) 9.0°C (48.2°F) 9.0°C (48°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 14:20Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 18.80N 76.99W - Time: 14:20:47Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 18.80N 76.99W - Time: 14:25:32Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE) - Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE) - Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 704mb to 1011mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE) - Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406

100%

GFS off to another good start this season

Yeah I don’t see any upshear convection but it might be reforming a bit.

Yeah it’s still in there and about to examine the convective burst.

IR and radar look interesting just south of Haiti. I wonder what recon will find there.

Yeah. I give it respect because it’s the best intensity guidance, but just 24 hours ago it was way too aggressive and in the 24 hours before it was great. Perhaps there’s a window but Elsa would need to really avoid a long journey over the mountains. It’s the best convection for sure. Radar out of Cuba looks pretty interesting too and it’s slowing down just as it hits a very high OHC region. If Elsa’s gonna overperform, it has to do it tonight IMO.

It’s pretty hard to tell but my guess is it’s out ahead of the convective burst. It will end up missing SW Haiti though so maybe it’ll get a little organization tonight as it clears the mountain influence and slows a bit. Maybe. Its got an uphill battle. Pun intended Edit: recon en route

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.

I’m sure there have been some earlier ones. This one is uncommon because of how soon it developed and how strong it became. I’m sure others were just middling along until they found a more favorable environment in the Gulf and developed.

Good thread for those interested in diving deeper.

70mph/999mb at 11

Yeah—you can’t sugarcoat it. Despite the convective burst near the LLC it’s getting sheared and forward motion only hurts its ability to organize and align itself. It’s hanging on with these bursts and heading to the best OHC environment in the entire basin so I don’t think we can give Elsa last rites or anything like that, but it’s struggling for sure.

Night and day appearance compared to yesterday. Definitely an ugly look this morning with the LLC exposed.