WxWatcher007

I’m not ashamed to say I seriously considered how I could chase both logistics wise. Don’t count on it That was an all-time event out there.

Reposting from my MA thread. First two years were great. Last year sucked. Time to get back on track and turn around my wrong streak so far this year. WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 Hurricanes: 6 Major Hurricanes: 4 Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140. Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 1. ENSO This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 2. West African Monsoon No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 3. Wind Shear For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear. As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk. I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 4. SST Anomalies/OHC Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak. With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. \ Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 5. CCKW/MJO Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak? SAL & Stability The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic. To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR. There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential. This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic. Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future. In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. Overall With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean. Final Note--Landfall Odds The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. We'll see what happens. Happy tracking.

WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 Hurricanes: 6 Major Hurricanes: 4 Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140. Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 1. ENSO This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 2. West African Monsoon No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 3. Wind Shear For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear. As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk. I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 4. SST Anomalies/OHC Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak. With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. \ Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 5. CCKW/MJO Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak? SAL & Stability The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic. To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR. There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential. This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic. Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future. In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. Overall With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean. Final Note--Landfall Odds The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. We'll see what happens. Happy tracking.

For those still following this, the BRO radar is showing the final approach.

It’s August 20. Will start writing my peak period outlook shortly.

I got that—and I’m not saying season cancel, or that we won’t get some CVs—it’ll still be active IMO. But the MDR is still quite hostile as evidenced by the continued presence of stability/dry air that has caused every robust wave the last six weeks or so to fail to develop. None of the ones in the coming week have particularly high odds to develop in the tropical Atlantic due to the ongoing conditions, either. Recent years have focused most activity on the western Atlantic and if we don’t see greater strides in the next two weeks I think it’ll likely be the case this year as well.

We have to acknowledge that virtually everything has been a struggle in this basin thus far. We’re only now approaching the 20th and there’s a long way to go, but it really is put up or shut up time. Preseason is over and the clock is ticking now. Things have been getting better but it’s clearly not enough yet for any meaningful activity.

FWIW, recon has found some very weak westerly/NW'ly winds near the coast, but I agree, weak and disorganized mess today.

Everything is a fight this year.

So catastrophic even Phil gets choked up thinking about it.

Yeah it absolutely was. I’m really just talking about a landfall

We chase in horse and carriage

Right, so they are kind of like us in that they need to overcome a number of hurdles to get a direct hit. Agree about the Miami area.

It’s been a system defined by convective bursts and tomorrow morning is likely the last chance for it to pull itself together.

What places have blown past their return time in the hurricane landfall department? Just thinking out loud… Aside from NE I can only think of: GA coast (probably more overdue) FL east coast Houston Tampa

It’s hard to even comprehend how crazy a repeat of ‘38 up here would be. There’s just something about tropical that’s always fascinated me. September is the best wx month for me and it’s not even close.

Nothing to write home about at all with that recon mission, which is helpful in itself.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt. However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if they are correct any development could be slower than currently forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming over western and northern Texas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far south Texas during the day on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

NHC will initiate advisories on PTC 4 starting at 5pm EST.

Looks like a lot more honestly. This is why recon is so valuable.

Hurricane Bob anniversary is today.

Still no evidence of a closed LLC so far from what I can see, but it's still fairly early. Probably going to be good enough for at least a PTC designation though.

Getting a lot of flagged reports now. Too much rust from sitting idle during our dead period

There are already some flagged and unflagged SFMR readings over 34kts. However, the sampling just began and we don't know the state of a potential LLC.