WxWatcher007

18z was the most aggressive yet fwiw

I’m lukewarm on that wave, but it has been more convectively active today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022091212&fh=12

The thing with Wentz IMO are the leadership issues (which we haven't necessarily seen yet in Washington) and the fact that he does not take care of the football. He's talented, sure. He'll make plays, absolutely. But turnovers are killer and if you do that kind of thing against better teams you lose by 20. Go all in on a high end QB. There are good skill players on that offense.

I’m so happy football is back

Still baffled that Washington signed him. Actually, no I’m not.

Definitely possible.

Blunt trauma is a good way to put it. lol

Earl let me down in not becoming a major, and it looks like the ones above will go 0/3. Just a struggle to get anything really going this year.

Earl flopping hurts but I still think my forecast will be fine at the end of the day. Homebrew region needs to produce.

Haha I just posted this in the Kay thread.

Another underperformer

Basin sucks. That is all.

It’s a chilly start here. Low of 51.5.

While it’s a known bias for the Euro to overdevelop AEWs, it’s actually incredible to see the operational and ensembles consistently spin up what are effectively fantasy storms in the MDR. The only one it’s done a reasonably good job with is Earl, and even then the operational was too aggressive. We don’t even need to go into the seasonal forecast, which is objectively an all-time fail. The GFS hasn’t been much better, with a truly awful consistently wrong forecast in the western Caribbean (another known bias) and overdevelopment at times too. Part of it is the tropical Atlantic being overwhelmingly hostile, but even short term forecasts have been way off, Earl and Danielle being two examples.

Probably the best thing the previous owners here did was install solar and a new roof simultaneously. I’m still trying to figure out the lease vs purchase thing and when to do it, but my bill has been cheap. I’m about +600 kWh this year.

These systems are fascinating. It intensified in high shear and weakened (a bit) when shear relaxed. Probably related to the earlier dry air intrusion and expanded wind field as @NorthHillsWxsaid.

Recon is making a SW to NE pass.

That’s fair lol but be careful we don’t need another morality debate.

It’s spectacular out here today. Beautiful.

And to be clear that doesn’t necessarily mean I’m talking high end stuff every week in October lol.

I think there’s going to be a lot of research on why we’ve underperformed so much during August in the tropical Atlantic. At this point, I need to see something develop out there to believe it. I’ve pulled the plug on that part of the MDR. Just look at the naked swirl that is 95L. Can’t make it up But it’s far too early to even look at the plug for the western Atlantic. I agree with the eastern Gulf being the main zone for landfall risk, and then the Carolinas (really NC) to a lesser extent. While the more frequent troughs will probably keep whatever develops out in the Atlantic OTS, when TC genesis happens in the western Atlantic it would pull those north/NE. It’s not terribly hard to get something to pop under a trough by the time we get to October.