WxWatcher007

First 90 since July 28. Warmest since July 6 with a high of 91.9° so far.

It’ll almost certainly be upgraded in the 5pm advisory.

Even 2-3 days out can be dicey for a general location. If you’re looking for the eye over your head, predicting a few hours out is nerve wracking. Nothing like it.

Expectations through the roof and out of whack. That little s/w is the perfect illustration of why this is still a low probability deal despite the general trend. The smallest thing can force this east, especially given how soon it’s expected to turn N. If this got buried in the central/NW Bahamas there’d be more wiggle room.

That’s why I’m just focused on the broader steering pattern trends. Every op run is going to be different at this range.

Yup

I think it’s a little more legit today than it was yesterday, but there’s an eternity to go.

00z Euro did, but I’d caution everyone to stay away from the verbatim deterministic outcomes—exactly where Lee ends up at 240. It’s all about the steering pattern and multi-day trend. As it stands, it still looks like the greatest likelihood is OTS (remember I was at 65% yesterday), but the two day trend in the steering pattern has increased the odds some of a threat to the east coast and/or Atlantic Canada IMO. This is still an eternity away, and we don’t have recon sampling the environment ahead yet.

Done

Did I pay you for the paid league yet?

As the tweet suggests, while there’s significant uncertainty over the strength and orientation of an E CONUS trough, there is a strong cross guidance signal of a more amplified ridge over the maritimes. That’s a big deal IMO, because while that’s probably not enough by itself to cause land impacts (Bermuda aside), the impact of that ridge amplification probably blocks a quick escape and limits the odds a truly progressive trough develops. It also increases the odds that this bends more NW/NNW after the initial turn north.

Let’s get a PRE before category four Lee runs up the CTRV to put an exclamation point on the wet summer

This looks more and more legit, especially with the ensembles hinting at a more amplified pattern. I still think this is NE, Atlantic Canada, or OTS.

If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO. Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up . Heater out your way.

That train left the station a while ago, facts and 10+ day solutions be damned

Such a long way to go with this one.

Loved tropical for as long as I’ve been alive. I can’t get enough…but I’ve done it enough to learn to keep expectations in check. Idalia was literally 10-20 miles from being a total bust for me. Hour 0. At the very last minute. Laura goes a few miles west at the last second and I end up with decent rather than the wildest wind I’ve ever seen in a legit category four eyewall. People will tie themselves in knots over the run to run variations but this stuff at this range is virtually meaningless. HAFS going nuclear is a major flag. Thought this one would be big a while back, but historic is on the table if it can avoid an early ERC.

Won’t be a TS long at this rate.

Extremely impressive presentation—this one is a contendah for a basin big dog, regardless of eventual track.

This thing is taking off. My goodness.

Love these, thanks for sharing. 100%. The euro run verbatim doesn’t get it done D10+ IMO. I’d tell folks to pace themselves but we just went through an entire winter breathlessly chasing D10 ghosts. A D10 cane is the holy grail and the train has left the weenie station.

Not exact times but posting for the purpose of a crude comparison. The last three euro runs at 240. We’ll see what the ensembles do.

First time according to the talking heads on Twitter

We do, but I trust ridging a hell of a lot more than trying to get a trough, and we pretty much need a trough. If you want interesting, you want more changes on the euro at 12z.

Even if the trough were perfectly oriented and perfectly timed I wouldn’t believe it at this range.