WxWatcher007

I've spent more time on this site this morning than probably the last month combined. I'm intrigued by next weekend. I need to get back to my yard.

Eventually I have to go back and grade my peak season forecast, but November has turned out to be a hot month. Coastal folks may want to watch what happens with 98L.

I guess I'm back lol. Can't remember the last time I tracked meaningful tropical for the continental US in November. I am sure it has been talked about, but the pattern has been highly conducive for tropical or subtropical genesis in November--like historically anomalous. This general mid/upper level pattern has reduced shear just enough alongside a still warm western Atlantic to create brief windows for what we've seen so far this month. Despite what we'd typically define as a hostile Atlantic, we're once again seeing just enough of a window once again for (S)TC development. This time very close to home. As a result, we have newly designated Invest 98L. While it's still messy, it is clearly trying to develop, with surface observations showing an area of low pressure taking shape north of PR. Despite the presence of dry air (which may play a role in tropical vs subtropical designation early on), convection is trying to fire near the apparent center. The latest update from the NHC shows 70% two day and now 90% five day odds of development. That's all pretty straightforward. As @GaWx pointed out that the start of this thread, the guidance has been nearly unanimous in showing some type of development in the SW Atlantic from this area of disturbed weather. At first, the signal had weaker development that was pushed into FL due to an anomalous ridge over the top. However, in recent runs of operational guidance (which makes sense to use since we're looking at short to medium range activity with 98L), things have trended stronger. This is in large part due to reduced projected shear allowing 98L to better organize. The large and sprawling low that was modeled in recent days would have brought rain and coastal flooding that coincides with the King Tides. Now we're seeing a trend toward a tighter low, that still brings rain and coastal flooding as the main concerns but increases the risk of strong winds. If, and this remains an open question, 98L can avoid more hostile shear as it approaches Florida, the still warm waters off the coast creates a sub major hurricane level ceiling IMO. There are still subtleties on the exact track, but the ensembles target the east coast of Florida before a trough comes in and sweeps whatever 98L becomes northeast. From there, it may become a strong extratropical system, but that's a discussion for another day. For #1--I agree. The more organized it becomes, the more likely it takes on tropical characteristics. Obviously hurricanes are tropical. For #2--Agree. For #3--Even with a higher ceiling, I don't think this looks like a major wind event for most. I do think the coastal flooding may be serious, depending on track and timing. I don't know FL law, but my guess is that for the overwhelming majority of parts impacted by this it'll be business as usual on Election Day. If it were a major hurricane coming in (which I think is highly unlikely) it'd be a different story as you'd need to move polling locations.

Annual October big dog delayed but not denied? I haven’t been following much, but I know you posted about it a while back. November has had a big time pattern for TC genesis. Newly designated 98L has a hurricane ceiling if it can tighten up and avoid too much shear. Models have been trending stronger in the short-ish range.

November of yore for the WOR

I closed the shades on tropical weeks ago, but definitely impressive to have two Atlantic canes and a strong signal for subtropical development off the SE coast in November.

Something about showing youth and vigor…and being poor. I’m bringing in the big guns this weekend lol.

Hi, I'm WxWatcher, and I have a love-hate relationship with Winter. Winter and I had an ugly divorce almost a decade ago when I lived in DC. I moved back home to New England afterward, but things have barely changed. Will Winter ever treat me right again? I'm tired of waiting until next year for reconciliation.

We freeze and rebound. Below freezing for about 7 hours. Low of 27.7.

37.0/33

Sounds like I need one. I did a lot of raking today. Pushed my back to the limit

11 years ago

Down to 29.3 this morning. First freeze at the house.

2.00” on the day

Getting smoked. Approaching 1.5”

Good storm winding down here at home. A number of good flashes. .79” and counting

Where do I sign?

We close the book on 2022

Will it be easier for @Sugarloaf1989 to find parking?

I will say it’s pretty cool to see my solar production and carbon offset.

I made it a point to stay away from any house using oil when I was in the market. I have natural gas heating, and I’d love to get a wood stove put in eventually.

High of 69.6. Perfect fall day.

It really would be good to catch up with folks again. Always nice to put faces to avatars.

I ended the event with .44” Hoping to get a backyard mow in this weekend.

The reason I’m here is wx. Sure, banter about sports, gardens, lawns, and local stuff happens and is usually benign, but I personally don’t think any political or “society has become X” stuff should be on the site. My two worthless cents.