WxWatcher007

God as my witness, and forgive my whining, but I don’t know how to describe the feeling of missing this one. I barely remember the wins, but I can never forget the missed opportunities.

I wish. This is Michael all over again for me. Stuck at work while a big dog is landing in Florida. This ******* sucks.

Latest VDM from recon Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:55ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 28Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:23:12ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 82.86WB. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the SW (227°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 19kts (From the NE at 22mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:09ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 160kts (From the NNE at 184.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:02ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 10:41:21ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 139kts (From the SSE at 160.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 10:40:39ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,452m (8,045ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 160kts (~ 184.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center at 10:13:02Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center

Not boring.

This is why blindly locking in tropical forecasts is complete folly. Sometimes you have to work the problem all the way through the end.

I thought with the ERC completed last night that intensification would occur, but this is truly extraordinary. There were some signals for intensification near landfall from the hurricane models, most notably HAFS.

It almost certainly does to an extent, but this isn’t even a calculated risk lol Maybe I’m overthinking it and they’re just drunk..

This is insane.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi On this site you can follow recon visually with overlays or just follow the data from recon flights. Hope this helps.

I’m bad at sarcasm

I don't know. I think flooding was expected but not to this extent.

Yeah this was a pretty quick ERC and it looks like the eye is contracting. Unless shear or dry air disrupts the center, it stands to reason that it would begin a period of (re)intensification overnight.

First VDM from recon Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:26ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 24Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:05:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.68N 83.00WB. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (276°) from Key West, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the westG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (102.4mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 1:59:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 102kts (From the ENE at 117.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 1:58:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 2:11:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 156° at 117kts (From the SSE at 134.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:12:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 2:12:00Z

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:16ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: IanStorm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 24Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 2Z on the 28th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 24.7N 83.0W Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (277°) from Key West, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -439m (-1,440 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 952mb (28.12 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) 925mb 257m (843 ft) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 115° (from the ESE) 8 knots (9 mph) 850mb 1,000m (3,281 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.9°C (70°F) 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph) 700mb 2,676m (8,780 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 2:05Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 24.66N 83.00W - Time: 2:05:20Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 24.66N 83.01W - Time: 2:09:14Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 707mb to 951mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 95° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 952mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.9°C (70°F) 764mb 17.8°C (64.0°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 700mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 12.8°C (55°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 952mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) 911mb 120° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph) 850mb 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph) 707mb 355° (from the N) 2 knots (2 mph)

High end flooding occurring in Key West

Recon is about to confirm whether it is done or not.

I usually hold my tongue, but he should know better than to use the HRRR.

Also starting to see lightning increase in the southern part of the outer eyewall in the last hour on radar.

That main thread is a work of art.

Good time for recon to head out. It looks like the cycle is concluding but recon would obviously confirm. I think the question now is whether the new eyewall will contract and bring the maximum winds up, or whether the energy becomes dedicated to broadening the hurricane force winds via a larger wind field.

Here are the 00z spaghetti models. I do wonder how far out over the Atlantic this one will trend. Probably won't make much of a difference as we're currently talking about a minimal category one versus a strong TS, but it is one of those areas where there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and the trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet. A more progressive track over Florida probably means a greater (to a limit) shift over the Atlantic.

There is nothing like a tracking thread on AmWx when something big is coming