WxWatcher007

One thing we can all agree on is you can ALWAYS bank on that.

I think the uncertainty is a little greater given the PAC and orientation of the block, but it’s not terribly substantive in my mind yet wrt the likely outcome—which is a broadly favorable wintry pattern post Dec 15. Could be wrong of course about that. If it’s getting pushed back in time the next few days that’d be a cause of concern for me. Even then, I don’t think I’d worry too much about eventually hitting in December. I do believe we will have greater than climo odds of a big dog the later we go given the block if there’s a relaxation in the Pacific.

I can’t speak for others, but I don’t think the goal posts have substantively changed, at least in terms of my expectations. A quick flip is always nice, but it was flagged weeks ago that there was a significant likelihood that a change in sensible weather for most would lag the upper level changes. Will has consistently talked about the pattern change occurring in stages. Obviously, we’d like to see op runs and ensembles aligned especially with regard to the PAC, but as @40/70 Benchmark and others have noted the overarching change is rooted in tropical forcing and is unlikely to totally flop. I will readily admit to having no proficiency in that kind of analysis but just looking at the 500mb evolution I think there’s a lot of consternation over the speed of the sensible wx change when there’s not a clear trend imho that has raised alarms that the post 15th period will be “bad”. I still think we’re moving in the right direction, with a potential window for a mixed bag (advisory) system between the 10-15th and higher end potential (warning level) after that.

Always pick the model with the least snow and hold onto it for dear life. Can’t be disappointed if you always expect the worst.

From far and wide, O Canada, we stand on guard for thee?

Hope all is well with you and your family!

Christmas trees in town squares across New England spontaneously combusting?

Thanks. That was a much needed snowfall. I was burying my dad that week. Hopefully my house will be good for snow. I'm right near the Manchester line (again) so as far away from the CT River as I can get in town.

Yeah, 1/7/22 was a good one. That time was a blur for me.

@Kevin W I found an error on the site under my records. I have 8.5" listed for 12/7/21 when it should be 1/7/22. Can you edit that? I tried to do it but couldn't when logged in.

Thanks guys. I think I found the error. It’s on the New England snow site but not my personal data sheet—and the personal sheet has 8.5” on 1/7/22. My note says that was a coastal that significantly overperformed in CT.

I have 8.5” recorded on 12/7/21 and another 1.7” recorded on 12/8.

Yep, just in time for Christmas. Don’t need the op runs to feel good about the prospects moving forward. The last three years have produced warning level events here and I think that streak will continue.

Come on man you didn’t have to do berg and wolf like that

Hopefully this happy hour dopamine drip keeps the panic at bay and wailing and gnashing of teeth at a minimum. In all seriousness, even if the weekend doesn’t work out we’re starting to see the wave train going, which is exactly where I’d want to be heading into mid month.

It’s been talked about a lot here, but another good thread (and image) highlighting where the ensemble uncertainty lies. My bar is still a warning level event and advisory event by the end of December and that’s still on the table IMO. If we do get threats and snowfall in the 20th-31st period, a lot of us will be satisfied.

Pretty sure it been said ad nauseam that this shift will happen in stages. I’m not sure who reasonably figured snow would be anything but a low likelihood deal pre 12/12 or so. I don’t get why some are going in circles with this. We’re watching water boil. Patience.

GOOOOLLLLLLLLLL

That 12/9 system gets squashed south sooner on the 12z GFS, not that it changes anything for us verbatim.

Ouch

The World Cup is one of the most watched/followed events on the planet. At least 500 million watched each of the last three finals globally. GO USA

Seriously, some of the best days of my life happened in the period between that chase and Thanksgiving weekend. I’m still in awe of what I saw. Hopefully I can get a Feb ‘13 level storm imby this winter.

That was a legit qpf event too. That wasn’t six feet of fluff. Brutal.

lol I basically had one setup in the Mid-Atlantic for half a decade. All time melts.

Agree. Despite the PAC volatility on the guidance I think we’d have to be extraordinarily unlucky to not get at least one solid (warning level) hit.