WxWatcher007

Of all the patterns over the years, this is the worst by an order of magnitude. I’m being dead serious too. The precision it takes to smoke Dallas, Atlanta, the upper south, central Plains, Ohio Valley (Cincinnati), western NY, DC, most of Virginia, the Mid-Atlantic coast, and northern NJ (in December) while simultaneously porking virtually all of non elevated New England is truly extraordinary. I’m as optimistic in life as one can be, but a cleared eyed assessment of this situation cannot lead me to any other conclusion than this was our chance, and a rat is likely to prevail imby as a result of our increasingly apparent failure.

Gotta love winter in New England: more talk about climo snowfall of yore and white asbestos flakes from abandoned buildings falling across cold and dry landscapes than actual snow.

The world needs to see what the models have done to us.

Because you have unhinged takes like you expect Hartford to have the climo of Tahoe. The very fact that you’re posting here at this hour in a semi-sober state tells me I should go ahead and pull the plug on this threat.

We’ll take whatever snow we can get from this one but if it’s a fail—meaning no major plowable—winter is canceled over here.

Poor Cape Cod

I think most understand the grave nature of the situation. We’re beyond cherry picking.

Agree, which is why it’s still worth watching, but man this is on life support. I actually think the EPS will be slightly better but we’ll see.

Yes, I’m thinking the very far east members skew the mean somewhat, but we need more from other guidance. Especially the euro in an hour.

Yeah (sigh)

I feel like we pay double for backward steps at this stage. You can clearly see the potential though. It detonates just to our east.

I don’t remember this one. GOAT ice storm for New England?

That one was unbelievable. Literally woke up unsure if it was going to snow here and we produced a miracle.

Keeping my mouth shut and primal rage bottled up. I said nothing would come easy days ago and I need to remember that as this threat goes on life support.

Not where it needs to be, but I don’t think 00z was a death knell. Definitely bad, but if anything it reaffirms how important that NS element is. Very important to see more steps forward in future cycles over the next 36 hours. 12z 18z 00z

What not to do. Of all the places too—DC

I’m so happy for all of you. Congrats. Now let’s get some snow on snow this weekend.

I’ve been deliberate with my ensemble posts

I do too, but we’ve all been porked enough the better part of a decade to be cautious until we’re actually measuring

Even though I’m bullish, I totally agree with having some apprehension given how sensitive the setup is. It’s big boom or big bust imo. I think public facing communication should remain conservative as a result, at least for now. Although I think it’s less likely now that we’re 24h closer, there’s certainly the risk that this trend broadly backslides, which is an especially pronounced risk here because of the sensitivity to the ridge and actual phase.

Would really like to see consensus..

The next frame for those unnecessarily panicked There’s still a long way to go. Far from locked, but better than we were starting the day.

Look at these changes. This is what you want to see. 00z 06z 12z 18z

Definitely want to see something similar on the 18z EPS. Note how little is held back here Compared to the 12z EPS (which was a modest improvement over 00z)

A couple runs notwithstanding, I have loved this look overall. This can absolutely be a megalopolis/region wide KU. The whole trend for multiple cycles has been positive, surface depictions be damned.