WxWatcher007

It really has. I think it’s made all the more impressive that none of this has been related to a tropical system, like 2021 was.

1.36 so far. HRRR is active again this afternoon.

Good luck. Be safe.

Another .50” in the last ten minutes. Now that’s impressive. .96” total now.

And another .12” in three lol

.46 in 30 minutes

That’s insane.

Inches and inches of sediment. Yard as fertile as the Amazon River basin.

Channeling my inner TFizz 0.0” Couple raindrops Grass turning brown

Another classic miss coming here.

Probably going to pass to my north

More environmental recon than structural/in-storm recon lately from NOAA.

Rinse and repeat the last two pages for the next two days.

Saturate the soil so we can take down forests with our 25-35 mph gusts Saturday

Definitely will see watches for the Cape and Maine at some point today.

Pouring in western CT. Two FFWs already up.

Right. Looking objectively at the ensemble graphics I posted, the jump west yesterday was significant. Nobody could have taken one euro op run that was an outlier and immediately jump on board. Agree that this morphs into a compromise deal. That’s usually how these go. I’m thinking just west of Bangor when all is said and done, leaving a fairly close approach for the Cape.

My rule of thumb for tropical is beware the last minute drift east. Not even thinking of nor’easter climo here. Agree with that envelope of possibilities too. Still quite a bit of time to go with this one.

Like I said yesterday, we’re tracking ticks inside 48. Additional movement west on the models probably happens at this range, followed by a slight correction east late. That doesn’t mean the next 1-2 days it’s all ticks west then all of a sudden Friday the last runs are east, or that we go from a solution with the center very near the Cape swinging to the western edge of Nova Scotia Saturday morning. I’d advise the center followers to “smooth out” the op run/ens mean trends over multiple model suites, because tracking tropical and attaching some meaning to each cycle at this range risks losing the forest for the trees. Exact center placement will come…inside 48. While the center pass is not nearly as relevant for coastal areas of the Cape, Maine, and Nova Scotia—and those folks should be preparing if they haven’t started already—it’ll matter inland for areas back my way. Setting aside the op runs, just look at the ensemble shift. That’s significant.

Yeah pretty close. Maybe a tick east of 18z but west of 12z. Ensembles next.

Not related to the forecast portion, but just look at the size of Lee as it begins to turn.

18z GFS 925mb winds (again, this doesn't all mix down) 00z GFS

SW and slightly stronger. We’ll see what the euro does.