Most of the big factors for a hyperactive season seem baked in, but I suppose a fail mode could be wave breaking imparting shear frequently during peak season. Similar to what we saw a few years ago. That said, I think that’s unlikely.
Yup. May 23rd…
Extreme warmth both in extent and depth across the basin, classic AMO, patterns reinforcing weaker trades, and a coming Nina to abate shear.
It’s definitely time to think big about 2024.
High res looks active here in CT even as early as tomorrow morning, but not sure I see a legit severe threat tomorrow, especially if there’s early morning junk. HRRR goes wild though.
I could see that in June, with a flip later July/August but that’s entirely speculative. I’ve heard Nina summers usually feature +NAOs and more Atlantic/SE Canada ridging.
You’re more plugged in on severe than I’ll ever be, but if I were to hazard a guess about our summer it’d be active storm wise. Once we break into heat and dews..