WxWatcher007

I still think that's a bit too far south, but idk. That's the difference between meh and something far more impactful.

Hugging that coastline

Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA- Including the cities of Willimantic, Springfield, Ayer, Fitchburg, Vernon, Union, Hartford, Putnam, Windsor Locks, and Barre 146 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 35 and 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT, Tolland CT, and Windham CT Counties. In Massachusetts, Northern Worcester MA, Northern Middlesex MA, and Eastern Hampden MA Counties. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The long duration of the winds coupled with heavy rain and fully leafed trees may exacerbate the risk for tree damage and power outages.

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are 1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here.

Yup. That's exactly what I'm thinking. First max maybe over Long Island (or in reality coastal CT) and a second max up near Boston. I think the Euro is going to be robust. The trend definitely seems to be more amplified today so far.

I can def see a SW CT jackpot for rain.

And this is the GFS. A further north track with decent mixing would put good gusts into much of southeast New England and maybe into CT. This is HFD at 18z Saturday.

Really starting to see that rain signal appear @weatherwiz. As for wind. Boston Groton New Haven

Fay is back from the dead, we have an invest near the CV islands, and possible subtropical development coming off our coast.

EPS probabilities are very high for some type of warm core development. You definitely don’t see these often in this region. If we see a continued trend on guidance of a deeper system this will only increase imo. Like I said earlier, it’ll be a sight on satellite to see this string out low wrap itself up into a sprawling but coherent low.

ICON fwiw, is a good hit.

Yikes. Hopefully you make a full and speedy recovery.

What happened?

It’s not missing south lol

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again.

Anyway, back to wx. Our area of interest is still strung out. It's going to take a while to consolidate but when it does this loop is going to be very interesting to look at.

I'm always fascinated when we hop down this societal rabbit hole. Can't two things be true? Some of the things we do have come to reflect an overly cautious nature. But some of the things we do also aren't the smartest. You can't cancel school on every windy day, sure. But you also can't tell the parents burying their baby oh well, it was just an act of God when you lost their child on your watch. I don't care about your politics, age, or upbringing--nobody is going to want to hear that. Especially if forecasts explicitly said a storm was coming.

I’d appreciate, rather my peak season forecast would appreciate, another run at hurricane status

Robust but south. Gotta imagine the Euro and GFS meet in the middle as they usually do.

Maybe it’s getting a clue, but there’s still a ways to go before we have our well formed low. At the moment it’s still a highly strung out weak low attached to a frontal boundary.

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west.

1041 is very impressive.

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often.

Polo is back in a big way. Not often we see a hurricane lose C5 status and come back like this.

I've been a longtime defender of NHC decisions on most of their designations, but in recent years (perhaps since Sandy?) I think they've been a little slower or hesitant when it comes to designating anything north of the Carolinas when it's not a slam dunk case. I provided a couple of examples a day or two ago. I can't say for sure, and I definitely do not make this statement to challenge the integrity of the great people working there, but I've seen public facing organizations generally hold a more conservative approach when it comes to making calls that could minimize credibility. We see here in this thread people that follow wx closely minimizing this, and the general public for better or worse will fall into the camp of this is the most dangerous thing ever or it's really no big deal. The NHC is in a lose-lose in public perception. Even a TWO mention ramps up the hype machine and everything that comes with it, and if it falls short of expectations in either direction people may be less likely to care about what the NHC says in the future. Hopefully I'm wrong, but its harder for the meteorology to stand alone in this era of social media and hype. Just look at the clowns posing the Sandy 2.0 stuff on Twitter and people sharing 925mb wind plots like we're a few thousand feet higher up. There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is.