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Ellinwood

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ellinwood

  1. Ellinwood
    Snow depth maps are precisely my main influences with my forecast for this system, though with some touch-ups because some web sites will under-do snow depth if the rates can overcome the marginal surface temps.
  2. Ellinwood
    Been awhile... I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward.
  3. Ellinwood
    gm chasing this area today
  4. Ellinwood
    Flip from rain to sleet to snow only took about 15 minutes in Germantown.
  5. Ellinwood
    Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo.
  6. Ellinwood
    A quick update before a full day of watching the kiddo.
  7. Ellinwood
    GRAY'D
  8. Ellinwood
    Hola.
  9. Ellinwood
    Rain/snow mix in southwestern Germantown (mostly snow)... was rain/sleet an hour ago. 35F
  10. Ellinwood
    No changes to my forecast. Playing the usual rule of thumb that the deform band ends up more NW than progged.
  11. Ellinwood
    I like these storms... show up suddenly and no need to track little wiggles for 5 days.
  12. Ellinwood
    gm
  13. Ellinwood
    Pre-dawn start and cold low-levels will help, but that warm nose is gonna be a bitch.
  14. Ellinwood
    I'm pessimistic southeast of I-95. Rain or rain/snow mix early and temps struggling to reach freezing there. Hopefully rates can overcome it.
  15. Ellinwood
    Nothing too crazy. I think the NWS has a pretty good grasp of things right now. I'm relying mostly on the Sunday front-end thump along+east of I-95.
  16. Ellinwood
    I'm too fast for ya!
  17. Ellinwood
    Snow map. Very complicated setup with lots of caveats, but we seem to be converging on a moderate to major snow event across the Mid-Atlantic. IMO major decider will be coastal low development and resulting QPF for Monday.
  18. Ellinwood
    Final... I hate how much sleet is progged to get northwest of I-95, but IMBY in Germantown I would think 3-5" of snow/sleet with downside 2" upside 6-7" is a good forecast.
  19. Ellinwood
    No changes... gradient area near I-95 is boom or bust at this point. Leaning slightly toward bust near I-95, but this isn't worth micro-editing.
  20. Ellinwood
    "I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.
  21. Ellinwood
    Eh. I was too high on amounts regionally for all but like 2 events a couple of years ago, lol.
  22. Ellinwood
    Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.
  23. Ellinwood
    Haha you're fast. Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally.
  24. Ellinwood
    Let the Fall Line do Fall Line things. Don't overthink it.
  25. Ellinwood
    Wednesday looks pretty legit... people are still suffering from 2019-20 PTSD.
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