Winter Wizard

Its own AI is north. Just seems like typical GFS shenanigans at play.

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

I would consider the Euro to be the upper limit of this...IF everything aligns there potential would be there for most of the sub to see a foot+, just not sure where. My main concern would actually be dry slotting and a potential messy handoff between the initial low and the coastal.

Is there a major storm where the GFS WASN'T overly suppressed? I would be more concerned if it wasn't.

I would primarily focus on QPF for now, the Kuchera algorithm can be wonky. Having said that, I would expect favorable snow growth that would yield >10:1 ratios particularly in the second half of the storm.

Definitely good to see a more meridional height field.

TPV looks east and the northern piece looks stronger. Both good for increasing the ceiling and northward extent of the precip.

The Euro is a different evolution than we’ve seen: essentially a multipronged event with initial overrunning, a lull, and then transfer into a coastal where it bombs. Not far off from a February 2014 setup as a first thought. If the second piece comes in, that ups the ante and I really think HECS potential could be on the table. Fitting it’s basically on the 10 year anniversary of the last one.

100% agreed. Although, the big ones always lock in early

The AIFS obviously shouldn't be taken verbatim but I don't think it's far fetched to believe this isn't a one and done pattern. We'll be in a -NAO/-EPO/+PNA regime and that should keep cold air in place for the foreseeable future with a mean storm track targeting the East. I don't bite easily, but this has my attention.

I have not seen potential like this a long time in the Mid-Atlantic. Gives 2010 vibes. Just need to bring it home and hope it doesn't get squashed south.

From what I've gathered, verification stats have had Euro AI ensemble and EPS as pretty much neck and neck...sometimes the AI has had a slight edge but definitely not the magic bullet that some people imply. The AI has done better with individual storms, especially this hurricane season, but it also got its clock cleaned in others. Just like with every other model. My two cents is there is promise, but the jury is still out on when they are most useful and to what extent. There will always be limitations when the models are mostly data-driven instead of physics based.

For reference my hometown of Wilmington, DE hasn’t seen a 6” snowfall since March 2018 while I’m pretty sure almost everyone else on this forum and northward has. Unfathomably bad luck.

All we need is 0.7” at DCA and this December is snowier than the last 7 combined. Wild stuff! And I think there’s a pretty good chance of that.

Nope, this guy does the same song and dance every year. This is all you need to know:

Came across this which I found somewhat interesting...Arctic sea ice is currently matching 2012's pace for record low but in the Beaufort Sea (Alaska) it's actually well above the 2000s and 2010s median. Not sure what, if anything, that means for Winter but may be worth keeping an eye on.

Very slight tick north it seems with a tad weaker confluence over New England. No material changes, still 6"+ verbatim for most.

Seems more often than not when conventional wisdom and every pro forecaster leans one way, you'll want to bet on the opposite occurring.

This strikes me as a somewhat lite version of 1/6. I think most south of US 50 are good for 6"+ and 3-6" up to near the Mason-Dixon Line. Fairly straightforward setup here, main concern is surface temps being close to freezing. That, plus a progressive pattern will limit the upside and I would be skeptical of pushing double digits. Exercise caution on models currently depicting that. Certainly mindful of potential adjustments north, but not quite sold on that yet. Still, this should be another warning event for most of this forum, and will cement a pretty solid winter that was better than I think anyone could have hoped for. And still more chances to come down the line.

Strongly agree with this call, Ray. Honestly seems like a very cut and dry forecast for this area.

Widespread 4-8" looks like a solid bet for most of SNE.

I'm becoming increasingly convinced no one in SNE sees a changeover to rain. There has been a clear southward shift in the surface low and low-level cold looks to hold on strong. This could be a real mess on Thursday with a thump of snow ending as a mix.

Everything looks to be locked in for a forum wide 6-12” event. I for one am not overly concerned about N Maryland, and in fact could see that being a secondary max given better ratios, no mixing concerns, and strong lift. That often happens on the north side of a sharp gradient. The hi-res models coming in wetter and more expansive on the northern edges do not come as a surprise to me. Regardless, looks like the best storm in years for many and well deserved. Hope you reel it in!

CSU AI models are pretty bullish for the severe weather and tornado potential on Friday. Maybe overdone, but that is always a concern whenever a tropical system passes to your west.

Yeah, it's very much a pick your poison situation. A near miss for Jamaica would likely translate to worse impacts for the Yucatan. And a stronger storm is more likely to skirt northward between the eastern US ridge and central US trough, increasing the odds of US impacts. The west/weak and north/strong spread is pretty evident on the 12z models.