hudsonvalley21

At 6” currently. We’ll see what happens overnight.

Just had a lightning flash and a rumble of thunder.

Flakes improving and back to mostly snow. Wind gusts are getting more frequently now.

Uptown’s AFD has some of that mid level information. It could be that it’s pushing much further north than thought. NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong thermal forcing overrunning a 1037mb polar high centered over eastern Canada, bleeding southward into southern New England, has resulted in 2-3 inches of snow across portions of the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Long Island, with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour. This activity will overspread CT and the Lower Hudson Valley the next couple of hours as cold, dry air (dew points in the single digits to lower teens) saturates. Thus far, the NAMNest, the warmer of the solutions aloft, was handling the thermo profile best when compared to the 00Z OKX sounding. It was around 0c at 825mb, while the GFS and HRRR were several degrees cooler. Strong lift though will keep this area generally isothermal and below freezing the next few hours. The key here will be the position of the coastal front and how far north and west the warm nose (around 750 mb) gets overnight. There is even some evidence that the boundary layer will warm sufficiently after midnight (due to east winds) for some rain across eastern sections of Long Island and perhaps coastal SE CT. The front end dump of snow may make this a moot point with warning level snows likely achieved before this changeover even happens later tonight. Greatest pressure falls of 7mb in the last 3 hours just east of the Delmarva with a 1004 mb low east Wallops Island, VA. The low will continue to track northward and hug the coast, as a negatively tilted shortwave trough works NE across the central Appalachians. The low will eventually turn east running into the blocking high over eastern Canada, passing south of Long Island overnight into Thursday morning. The primary question remains how far north the low will come before making its eastward turn, which in turn dictates how much, if any, warm air is able to work into the area at the surface and aloft. From a big picture perspective, the models have been very consistent with the position of the low over the past 24 hours, with only minor changes from run to run. However, given how close the low is forecast to come to the region, even minor changes in the location of the low will have a significant impact on snowfall totals, especially along the coast. In addition, high resolution models are indicating the potential for a dry slot to develop across Long Island and perhaps as far north as southern Connecticut. Model soundings also indicate some loss of saturation in the dendritic growth zone during this same period, all of which could at the very least limit the intensity of precipitation, and possibly allow precipitation to change to drizzle for a period. With that said, global model soundings remain below freezing throughout the event, keeping precipitation all snow. Winds will become more northerly as the low pulls east towards daybreak, which will allow colder air to filter back into the region, changing precipitation back to snow everywhere. Snow will eventually wrap up from west to east from late morning into the early afternoon. Snowfall accumulations will range from 12-18 inches across the Lower Hudson Valley, interior northeast New Jersey, and interior southwestern Connecticut, where precipitation will remain all snow. Snow totals will range from 10-15 inches across much of the New York City metro area and western Long Island, although totals could be a few inches lower across coastal portions of Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau County. Across the rest of Long Island and far southeastern Connecticut, snowfall totals will range from 4-12 inches, lowest across the Twin Forks and immediate south facing coastlines.

Same here but at 4”

2.75 OTG with SN+. Moderate sized flakes and good dendritic quality. 20/19. Must be 10: to 12:1 ratios.

I was thinking that and or possibly it has mixing in this run

Hopefully I can cheer you up.

Maybe some thundersnow?

Impressive

Picked up in intensity now 22/18. Dew point jumping up 5 in the last hour.

Any changes in accumulations

Light snow just started

18z 3k NAM puts me in a snow hole

La La lock it up

Pretty much on schedule

23/13 nothing yet. Need just a little more saturation.

I guess I can live with it.

I jumped to 12

Current dew points in the metro area and north of the city. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLOUDY 31 17 56 NE12G18 30.31F WCI 22 Bronx Lehman C N/A 30 10 43 E13 N/A WCI 20 LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY 33 19 56 NE23 30.31F WCI 21 Queens College N/A 32 18 55 NE15 N/A WCI 22 Kennedy Intl CLOUDY 31 16 54 NE17 30.30F WCI 19 Breezy Point NOT AVBL Brooklyn Coll N/A 32 18 55 NE9 N/A WCI 24 Staten Island N/A 32 19 59 NE12 N/A WCI 23 Newark/Liberty CLOUDY 32 17 54 NE16 30.30F WCI 21 Teterboro CLOUDY 28 9 44 NE9 30.31F WCI 19 $$ White Plains CLOUDY 26 0 32 NE13G20 30.30F WCI 15 Larchmont Harb N/A N/A N/A N/A N21 N/A Croton On Huds N/A N/A N/A N/A E5 N/A Somers N/A 27 7 43 NE3 N/A Brewster N/A 25 3 39 NE5 N/A WCI 19 Newburgh CLOUDY 23 10 58 NE12 30.35F WCI 12 Montgomery PTSUNNY 21 8 57 NE10 30.34F WCI 10 Otisville N/A 21 7 53 NE3 N/A Warwick N/A 25 10 54 N7 N/A WCI 17 Suffern N/A 27 7 43 NE7 N/A WCI 19 Poughkeepsie CLOUDY 24 9 52 N8 30.37F WCI 15 Albany CLOUDY 16 4 59 N8 30.42F WCI

Currently the dew pt is 10. It will take some time to get that up for our snow to fall. The snow ratios could be more than 10:1 before the winds kick up and break up the dendrites.

With the snowpack and radiational cooling the Euro’s temps could verify overnight Friday into Saturday in our neck of the woods.

Point n click forecast low for tomorrow night is 14 IMBY.