FallsLake
-
Posts
6,317 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by FallsLake
-
Man I don't know. Does anybody know what model the NWS uses for their grid output? You can tell they're using one with the two hour flips between p-types.
-
They cut it down across the board. Sunday I was at 5-9" and now its 3-5. Then Sunday night have now have 1-2" of sleet. Edit: this might be because of reduced qpf
-
Very well could be; and with past events (and being marginal with upper and surface temps) we should expect this outcome. Like I stated in an earlier post, if it ends up being primarily sleet it would be impressive to see all the forecasted qpf. Liquid to sleet would be ~4". I would call that a win. Plus amazing sledding for the kids....
-
So for RDU folks, the 12z NAM did come in slightly colder. Meaning the initial snow line setups just south and east of Wake County. Then it still slowly pushes NW through the event. The last run had it eventually turning to rain back into Durham/Orange counties. But this run keeps the rain line no farther NW then the RDU airport until very late in the game; when the bulk of the precip is over.
-
At hr 22 it looks better for the RDU folks. Snow line is setting up just south of Wake county; whereas is was well into Wake at the same time on 6z. So colder. Edit 12z NAM
-
Looking at my grid forecast, they're giving me 7-13". I'll still call this a win with 5" with a little sleet and freezing rain. That initial snow is going to be everything. As others have stated once you get snow and if it's heavy, it many times overcomes slightly above freezing mid level temps to stay all snow.
-
I've seen some impressive sleet storms. But if you're going to get as much qpf as forecasted, you either want all sleet or all snow.
-
yeah, six inches of snow with some sleet and then 1/4 of ice would look nice.
-
I agree, 31 or 32 degrees with moderate freezing rain will have at least half of that run off before it can freeze. I'll be real interested in the dew point to our north once the event evolves. Also as we get the initial snow, that can pull our temps down lower. If we happen to get into the upper 20s when we transition, the ice could be worse.
-
This would be a fun storm for RDU. 6" of snow and 1" of ice.
-
Rough time and it was doubly rough for you having a new born. Glad everything worked out; definitely a good weather story to link to her birth.
-
That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.
-
Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it!
-
Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event.
-
We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends.
-
Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow.
-
Finally at hr 48 it's snow at RDU! The line for snow/ice/rain down towards Fayetteville and up towards Rock Mount.
-
It's (now) at least a major ice storm for many (including Triangle folks).
-
Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again.
-
RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest.
-
The 6z GFS has nothing past the VA/NC boarder. Big drop in total precip and coverage. I was about to post the snow map but I'm having issues uploading.
-
Definitely weaker. Looks to scoot that low faster out to sea.
-
For RDU folks, the 6z NAM was an improvement (maybe). The 0z had almost all of Wake in the 2" range (kuchera). You had to get into Chatham and northern Durham to see anything approaching 5". The 6z NAM pushes the 5-6" snows into northern Wake over into all of Durham. Funny but a little less in south central Chatham. Looks a little more south to north with the ranges compared to the 0z with its west to east cutoff zones. Dealing with freezing rain, looks like warning criteria ice for everybody; but it is less (lots of .5" totals compared to last run with over .80"). Also there was a shift east and south of the freezing rain. Folks in Johnson and Harnett counties would get warning criteria amounts.
-
Anything greater that .5" can get real bad. Again it only take .25" to warrant a Winter Storm criteria.
-
Yeah, its got .82" of freezing rain at RDU.
