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Everything posted by BrandonC_TX

  1. What's crazy is that area near Albany was hit with tornadoes just a few weeks ago.
  2. There's definitely a push of warmer, more humid air towards the DFW Metroplex now. Cleburne is now reporting 70 with a dewpoint of 66, and Waxahachie has now warmed to near 70 (they were in the cold pool earlier). Those severe storm parameters (EHI, SigTor, Supercell composite, etc.) are starting to creep northwards. If this airmass pushes any further north (and it will), provided we get storms tonight, that might be cause for concern, especially if a boundary is in the vicinity.
  3. Also watch that storm SW of the tornado-warned storm near Haskell. That severe-warned storm E of Roby looks like it is trying to form a hook as well. Rotation does not look as good at this time, though. EDIT: well it looked like it was developing a hook. Seems less obvious now. EDIT 2: the hook is back.
  4. Agreed. Definitely some rotation trying to form on it. The question is how long these storms can remain intense with eastward extent, given the cooler temperatures further east. You have mid-70s temperatures at Haskell, but two counties east at Graham, the temperature is in the upper-60s. That said, areas to the east are warming and moistening as the cold pool from the earlier convection tries to erode. Seems like that cold pool is persistently stubborn, especially just south of DFW, where Waxahachie continues to report 63F, but just south of there temperatures seem a lot warmer; Hillsboro is in the lower-70s. And there is another severe-warned storm north of Ardmore, OK as well.
  5. I'm awaiting the results of the 18z HRRR run, but the 17z run puts a big storm through the DFW area between 9-10pm (16z run also shows a big storm, and 15z shows lesser storms). That said, HRRR is showing warmer temperatures than what we are actually observing at the present moment though (currently 66F in Fort Worth, but 17z HRRR projected 70 to 71F by now). Once this cold pool shifts northeast, the Metroplex may try to destabilize (though the cloud cover seems to be hampering things a little bit), and the boundary left behind is always a concern if a storm comes into proximity with it. EDIT: 18z run did back off on placing storms in the DFW area.
  6. You don’t see hatching on a 15% wind risk that often, as SPC has out now up to and SW of San Antonio; most times hatched wind is not seen unless there is a 30%+ wind risk. Looks like the more intense storms could initiate around the Serranias del Burro of northern Mexico. I also got a quick-hitting convective shower at my location. The question is how much of a cold pool these storms over N TX are leaving behind. There is a prominent cold pool (lower 60s temperatures) just south of the Metroplex, and a lesser cold pool just to the NW of the Metroplex, but most DFW-area temperatures (except for Denton and Waxahachie) are in the mid-60s. The urban heat island could account for this, but the more intense storm cores went south and NW of the center of the Metroplex. SPC did trim the ENH risk further SW from N TX, however. Convective initiation is also underway SE of Lubbock at this time.
  7. The field of agitated cumulus south of Lubbock could evolve into one of the severe storm threats later today, as it moves east. This is where the CAMs suggested convective activity would initiate later, but said models did not predict the activity currently over north Texas (earlier NAM3k runs did, but more widespread than current observations). Outside of the larger storms near Graham and the complex NW of Waco, the current convective activity over north Texas seems to be doing very little to suppress insolation in the surrounding area (there is still plenty of sunshine at my location in west Fort Worth for instance), although satellite imagery does show cloudier conditions behind this activity. The back edge of this activity also looks to be a straight line from Waco to Graham, with almost nothing behind that. Unless we get additional convective activity immediately behind this, I think north-central Texas ends up seeing a good amount of surface-based instability this afternoon. What to watch for is if this initial convective activity lays down any outflow boundaries that Round 2 could exploit.
  8. This leading convective activity from west of Waco to northeast of Abilene may put a wrench into any possible model solutions for today. Even the NAM3k backed off on showing widespread morning convection. But it is all moving northeasterly, and the warm, moist airmass lies to the west of these initial elevated storms. Unless more widespread convection develops in the wake of these storms, I would not be surprised to see surface instability move in after the passage of these storms. If surface temperatures and dewpoints were higher, I would be much more concerned with severe storm activity, especially considering that I am seeing sunshine here in west Fort Worth. That said, the storm north of Albany, TX could also be on the verge of turning severe for large hail. EDIT: it just went severe for up to half-dollar sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
  9. I knew southern Tennessee was within the outbreak area on 4/27/2011 (the afternoon and evening storms were especially intense in SE TN), and was aware that the morning convection did result in multiple tornado touchdowns. But notice the relative lack of severe storm reports from western TN up through OH, all areas that were in the Day 2 Moderate risk. It is these areas I was saying had their severe storm potential suppressed (but not completely so, given some wind/isolated tornado reports particularly in KY/OH) by earlier convection. I cited the Day 2 outlook from April 26, 2011 to highlight some of the concerns SPC had then with issuing a Day 2 High Risk.
  10. It looks as if there is some convective initiation starting immediately north of Abilene, TX. Some additional areas of potential initiation also seem apparent on radar SE of there and over the Hill Country. I will be closely watching to see how widespread any convection can become.
  11. The CIPS Analogs now place 4/27/2011 as the 3rd best analog. 3/1/2007 (day of the Enterprise tornado) is the 2nd best analog; previous analog runs have consistently placed the 3/1 outbreak near the top. Even as one of the top analogs, it does not mean this this potential tornado outbreak will be like 4/27/11, but the fact that this is showing up so high in the analog list gives us an idea what the worst-case scenario for tomorrow could be. SPC held off on a Day 2 High Risk for 4/27/11 as well, citing concerns about morning convection, although the Day 2 Moderate went all the way up into Ohio (and as we know, that morning convection, although quite severe itself, did seem to suppress severe storms from western TN northwards and kept those northern areas from suffering an outbreak like 4/3/1974). Just because something is the worst-case scenario does not mean it will actually occur. But emergency management, hospitals, and public health authorities need to be ready for that worst-case scenario, especially when the risks for displaced and/or injured people involve more than just losing a home or having injuries treated at a hospital; the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic means that there is very real risk that any displaced and/or injured individuals could catch and/or spread the virus. And as previously mentioned, even sheltering from a tornado in a public shelter could pose some concerns with respect to viral spread. Even if this winds up not being a widespread tornado outbreak, it takes only one tornado going through a highly-populated area (and I mean anything from a moderately-sized city like Meridian MS all the way up to a major metropolitan area like Birmingham) to make these concerns real. While absolutely devastating to the people living there, a tornado strike on a rural area or smaller town should be much more manageable for emergency management, hospitals, and public health authorities, provided that there is adequate hospital coverage and availability (that said, this can be an issue in parts of the South).
  12. The looming question for myself and others in north-central Texas is whether convection will evolve to the west and create a cold pool over the area today. Several models are now suggesting that this will not happen; out of the five CAMs available on the Pivotal Weather website only the NAM3k is going with a cold-pool solution. Those other CAMs get the DFW Metroplex into a moist, unstable atmosphere from about 1pm (18z) onwards. The NAM3k had convection going up around Midland at about this time, but observations show that this has not happened yet. I will definitely be watching how widespread any convection to the west may develop this morning. If a cold pool fails to develop and the afternoon temperatures get well into the 70s, then I would not be surprised if a more substantial severe weather threat evolves in my area later today.
  13. All I can say is that with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, emergency managers, hospitals, and public health authorities need to have a plan for how they are going to deal with the displaced and injured, especially should a strong-to-violent tornado strike a well-populated area in the coming days. That grim outcome is definitely a possibility, though not a certainty by any means. Keep in mind that anyone who is displaced or injured would be at a greater risk for catching (or spreading) COVID-19. I have not heard too much about overburdened hospitals in the South outside of New Orleans (and even they are in the risk area here, though the most severe activity should be to the north of them), but this potential tornado outbreak could not be coming at a worse time. While tracking storms can be exciting, the death, displacement, and destruction they cause are anything but exciting. Honestly I hope this busts completely, but the signals are there for a potential tornado outbreak.
  14. Long story short, just to rehash that discussion, it basically says that we need to watch the evolution of that storm activity currently out by Midland and Lubbock. If said activity evolves into an MCS and persists as it moves eastwards into north-central Texas and Oklahoma (which seems to be the most likely scenario), then that convective activity will leave behind a cold pool, cutting off severe weather potential and N TX and OK. That HRRR run has the Midland/Lubbock activity fall apart and fail to grow upscale into an MCS.
  15. Sounds about right. That line near the Mississippi River would probably go linear, but I doubt you could rule out tornadic supercells there either if that 12z NAM run is correct (with higher EHI in that area), and even if linear, QLCS tornadoes and embedded supercells could pose a danger. But the most violent activity would have to be with any supercells ahead of this line.
  16. That would be a very scary situation anywhere from Louisiana to Alabama, but particularly across northern Mississippi, if that run verifies. I still have some questions about the extent of precipitation, but with the level of shear and helicity depicted, any area of warm-sector precipitation could be at risk of turning supercellular and tornadic. This NAM run also shows an area of precipitation ahead of the main line (that is at the western edge of the 70F+ dewpoints) in E Mississippi and SE Louisiana, and I have little doubt that those storms could also turn tornadic. Let's just hope that any tornadoes avoid highly-populated areas. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, people that lose homes will need places to stay in the aftermath of a tornado, so they do not risk contracting COVID-19 (or contribute to its spread if they already have the virus); this is much more manageable if the tornadoes can stick to rural areas and avoid population centers, unfortunately the South is more densely populated than the Plains, so the odds are higher that a population center could get hit. Hospitals are already burdened in some places by COVID-19 (particularly around New Orleans, though the worst of the severe weather should stay north of there), and the U.S. South is at particular risk of people developing serious complications, given that more people living there have preexisting medical conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. Having a major tornado outbreak occur amongst this pandemic is one of my worst fears, especially should at least one of those tornadoes strike a major population center. Needless to say I am hoping that this busts completely, but there could be a tornado outbreak this Sunday.
  17. Hopefully this storm starts to weaken before it hits Memphis, but it is in a highly unstable environment. SRH is not the highest (but is forecast to increase), but the CAPE more than makes up for that and allows for fairly high EHI values. EDIT: rotation seems to have become less organized but the storm is probably cycling. EDIT 2: the tornado warning has been dropped. If this storm is cycling, however, rotation could easily ramp up again at any time.
  18. The storm south of Jonesboro has a confirmed tornado on it as well. While forward motion is fairly slow (25mph), the storm may try to move towards the Memphis area if it holds together for that long.
  19. Not necessarily pertinent to this subforum, but this storm over northern West Virginia looks pretty vicious right now. It is not that often that you see a storm like this over this region:
  20. West Bend and Port Washington, WI are now under a severe thunderstorm warning. Surface-based activity could be possible I guess, given the proximity of the warm front and plentiful SBCAPE, but it won't be too much longer before this storm goes over Lake Michigan (and becomes elevated as a result). West Bend, WI seems to be reporting 73 degrees as well. Port Washington is at 54 degrees, so the storm will have to become elevated just before it reaches the lakeshore I guess; there may be a lake-breeze boundary near I-43 around Grafton given temperature differentials there. Further south, the warm air is reaching all the way to the lakeshore. EDIT: I'm also watching that hook near Jackson, WI as well. It does not look to be anything too concerning at the moment (it seems to be broad/weak rotation). EDIT 2: another severe thunderstorm warning has gone up in southeastern Ohio as well, with a storm approaching the I-77 corridor.
  21. And so it looks like things are starting to ramp up. Shouldn't be too long before it goes severe at this rate. Temperatures just to the south are in the mid-70s, although the prior poster said storms are just north of the warm front.
  22. SPC has now introduced a 5% tornado risk in the vicinity of the tri-point of MI/IN/OH. 15% hatched hail risk now extends northwest to Chicago, although areas further south (like Cincinnati and Indianapolis) have been removed from the hatched risk.
  23. Completely agreed, those surface winds are pretty weak so even getting a brief spin-up is going to be hard, and any such thing would have to be confined to the boundary itself given that LCL heights are pretty high just to the SW and temps are pretty cool just to the NE. The main action will likely be with any activity that forms further northwest later on, particularly in northern IN and southern lower MI (and maybe northern IL though SPC has backed off on that; likely NW OH too).
  24. The boundary I mentioned in my prior post is quite evident on the 10z HRRR, extending from near Columbus OH to near Clarksburg WV. The HRRR shows convective initiation in central OH (NW of Columbus) around this same time. The model shows backed winds along this boundary (in some areas they are coming out of the south, although other models back the winds less). There could be a window for a tornado or two if this verifies, provided convective initiation occurs and remains discrete (10z HRRR shows a few likely supercells in SE OH shortly after this), although T/Td spreads are quite large on the SW side of the boundary.
  25. Several of the CAMs have been consistently sending up isolated storms (some of which seem to grow into supercells) in the wake of the morning convection over central and southern Ohio in the afternoon hours. The 06z NAM3K has also moved closer to the HRRR and seems to initiate a supercell in southeastern Ohio. Although not a CAM, the RAP has also consistently suggested "popcorn" precipitation (possible storm cells?) developing in Ohio at the same general time. I am wondering if all of those models think that the morning convection will leave some sort of boundary behind? While parameters seem better further northwest, the storms there seem to develop more readily into clusters, so if this verifies, portions of Ohio could become a focal point for significant hail and *possible* tornadic activity (the direction of the surface winds near this boundary will be a factor, if they are coming out of the SW rather than the W then isolated tornadoes could be an issue). The HRRR suggests that the timeframe for this isolated convection to form would be around 18z near the Columbus area, and it is definitely conditional on the amount of subsidence and capping that is in place in the wake of the morning convection. I do think that northern IN/OH and southern lower MI may be biggest risk areas for severe storms, although a diagonal strip from southern WI all the way the Delmarva will need to be watched.