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Sydney Claridge

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Everything posted by Sydney Claridge

  1. Sydney Claridge
    It looked like a pretty strong-looking rotation signature west of Graford just a moment ago (it seems to have weakened slightly on the next scan).
  2. Sydney Claridge
    Looks like we got our first tornado warning of the day. We’ll also need to watch that (blue-circled) storm west of Stephenville too.
  3. Sydney Claridge
    The HRRR is definitely bullish, like it almost always is. That said, this particular run (18z) does get some pretty substantial CAPE and moisture into DFW, interestingly enough. I would feel concerned about severe thunderstorm potential here if it verified, provided that a storm could take advantage of the ingredients in place.
  4. Sydney Claridge
    For a moment there it looked like that storm around Azle was really trying to intensify, and it looks a bit weaker now.
  5. Sydney Claridge
    Looks like DFW has a second round of storms forming.
  6. Sydney Claridge
    That said, it seems like the radar return intensity over Irving and The Colony has increased slightly. If any storm cell in Texas is going to try to take a shot at turning severe, that tail end storm over I-35E/I-635 probably has the best shot at doing that.
  7. Sydney Claridge
    The storms around DFW seem to be struggling to initiate into stronger cells; a local met with NBC 5 said it was because of the cap.
  8. Sydney Claridge
    I've been getting thundershowers on the west side of Fort Worth. There are other thundershowers (at the time of writing) as far west as Lipan, on what appears to be a frontal boundary along a Saint Jo-Decatur-Weatherford-Stephenville line. Given the lower dewpoints and high LCLs in that direction, I suspect these are high-based.
  9. Sydney Claridge
    Getting freezing rain with some thunderstorm activity at my location in Fort Worth. We’ve also been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. This burst of convection looks to make things get ugly earlier than expected.
  10. Sydney Claridge
    Those severe thunderstorm warnings are really starting to line up now. If I’m going to get anything in Fort Worth, the storms to the southwest (Eastland area) are probably the ones to watch.
  11. Sydney Claridge
    Hail threat looks to be increasing with the intensity of that core.
  12. Sydney Claridge
    That supercell east of Perrin looks potent. I’d definitely keep an eye on any potential rotation as it approaches the higher dew points over and east of the I-35 corridor.
  13. Sydney Claridge
    Looks like we got our first severe thunderstorm warning over Odessa, with a risk for 70 mph wind gusts. Dew points are only in the 30s and 40s there, but there is still a little instability present.
  14. Sydney Claridge
    Storm on MS/AL border might have “that look” to it.
  15. Sydney Claridge
    While well outside of this subforum (this seems to be the main thread for the event), storms are going up over the eastern DFW metroplex, much further west than expected. SPC says they are "high based" in a mesoscale discussion regarding the possibility of issuing a watch for the ArkLaTex. I do wonder what this means in terms of implications for later in the event.
  16. Sydney Claridge
    It looks like we have what appears to be an outflow-dominant squall line here.
  17. Sydney Claridge
    I wonder if this gold-circle area should be watched for potential supercell development? It looks like there is a break in the line here, or that one segment (northern) has moved ahead of the southern segment.
  18. Sydney Claridge
    Damaging 70-80 mph winds coming into the Mustang/Yukon area per News 9 live stream. There is a kink in the line there too, although the News 9 live stream does say it is slightly behind the cool front.
  19. Sydney Claridge
    Severe-warned storm coming out of the Breckenridge area needs to be watched for the DFW Metroplex within the next few hours.
  20. Sydney Claridge
    Definitely looks like this is the dominant cell right now, with a severe thunderstorm warning.
  21. Sydney Claridge
    Looks like there might be some weak rotation on that cell over Altus.
  22. Sydney Claridge
    Might as well start a thread for this event. We have a moderate risk, with a 15% hatched tornado probability across central Oklahoma.
  23. Sydney Claridge
    And there is now a TOR warning on the MN/WI border SW of Grantsburg.
  24. Sydney Claridge
    Part of me feels that SPC went with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch specifically so that they could label it as a Particularly Dangerous Situation for straight-line winds. Tornado probabilities are at the maximum (20%) for a SVR watch, while the SPC outlook has a 10% tornado probability (within 25 miles of a point); normally we would expect a Tornado Watch with a 10% on the outlook, barring some post-outlook "nowcasting" suggesting lower probabilities. Typically I've noticed that 10% contours almost always lead to Tornado Watches, while 5% contours can go in either direction (that is, either a SVR or a TOR watch).
  25. Sydney Claridge
    The parameters for significant tornadoes and the Violent Tornado Parameter are both very high over the Twin Cities metro area. These parameters are not everything by themselves, but still, it is not an environment you would want a supercell to form and then go on to produce a significant tornado, especially over a highly populated metropolitan area like MSP.
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