Sydney Claridge

I believe that the frontal boundary is a bit further north than the models were forecasting, which seems to be located immediately south of the DFW metroplex, along roughly a Cleburne-Midlothian-Terrell line. There's still some dry air in place over DFW (30s and 40s dewpoints compared to 50s and 60s DPs to the south), so we'll have to see how long it takes to moisten up over DFW.

Interesting, as I just noticed that the models (GFS, NAM, and NAM 3k) were suggesting that a complex of vigorous storms (possibly supercells transitioning to an MCS?) may form in the vicinity of the DFW metroplex tomorrow (especially in areas S/SW). I would place my bet on a slight risk if the models continue to suggest the formation of a storm complex. EDIT: SPC 6z outlook confirms slight risk (5% tornado/15% hail) for north central Texas, including the southern portion of the DFW metroplex. NAM and GFS place the warm front slightly further north (into Denton and Collin counties) so if this holds I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk adjusted northwards, though the NAM 3k places it on a line from downtown Fort Worth to north of downtown Dallas (resolution differences?). If the warm front moves further north (as NAM and GFS suggest) I'd expect the bulk of the DFW area to get in more on the storm action.

GFS is showing a storm forming somewhere in the central Plains for next weekend. There's some run-to-run disagreement on where the humid air in the warm sector sets up though, as can be expected this far out. Today's 6z GFS run forms a major storm (probably overblown with sub-980mb MSLP tracking from CO into NE) and would suggest some severe weather potential for eastern OK and north central TX for next Sunday (3/18), albeit with some capping issues. Waiting for the 12z GFS to reach this time period to see what it shows...

While little to no severe weather is expected today, the GFS seems to be suggesting the potential for a severe thunderstorm event next Saturday (3/10) for the Red River area of north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma into East Texas. CFS gives a stronger storm system with less instability (and brings some instability into NE OK), and GDPS (Canadian) seems to be a non-event for the southern Plains. Euro has the strongest system, bringing a sub-1000mb MSLP low from the Panhandle into NE OK, and then to the lower Ohio River valley. SPC says that the predictability is too low, but this is still 7 days out.

It seems that convective initiation is starting along and east of a line from DFW Airport up through Sherman, based on seeing small pops of heavier returns on the radar surrounded by no returns at all. There are also patches of drizzle southwest of Fort Worth. We'll have to see how the storms develop.