Sydney Claridge

The last of the visible satellite is showing a decent initiation attempt along the Red River with this storm. Obviously the best severe potential is further west, but it still needs to be watched closely. I’m pretty sure these initiation attempts might be associated with the LLJ given their south-to-north movement.

The storm that has gone up over the Tioga, TX and Whitesboro, TX areas north of DFW needs to be watched closely. It is not (yet) severe, but the reflectivity and echo tops look to be increasing. If it can strengthen as it moves into southern Oklahoma, it is completely isolated.

It looks like there might be some attempts at storm initiation over the DFW area, but I’m not sure if something will emerge from that.

The Eppley livecam on WOWT was just hit by a tornado that touched down at Eppley.

Looks like some of the neighborhoods on the north side of Elkhorn, around Arbor View Elementary, were hit, based on the movement of the velocity signature and debris ball. EDIT: WOWT live stream just mentioned gate-to-gate shear of around 200 MPH, 100 in one direction and 105 in the other.

A very concerning scenario unfolding in the western suburbs of the Omaha metro.

The storm between Springtown and Boyd bears watching as it moves into the DFW metro area. The hail intensity on radar seems to be increasing.

The High Risk on March 2, 2012 did get into Ohio, with the 15% hatched (and MDT) encompassing the Columbus metro, but the sigtor threat didn't really materialize north of the Ohio River Valley in the state of Ohio. I'm getting flashbacks to that day looking at the model runs and SPC outlook, although SPC currently has the greatest risk for tomorrow outlined northeast of where they had the highest risk on 3/2/12. It looks like this CIPS analog run is showing 3/2/2012 (3/3/2012 at 0z) as the top analog for tomorrow, interestingly enough.

We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though.

It’s also pretty interesting to see all of this happening near a radar site, too. The storms over the Kansas City metro also bear watching; the atmosphere there (per SPC Mesoanalysis) also seems primed for potential tornadic activity. Fortunately those storms seem to be behaving themselves (rotation-wise), but I did notice some weak rotation around Shawnee. It’s not really “behaving” though; there’s a hailstorm in the KC metro now.

Looks like they have. This looks like some serious rotation near Alta Vista, KS:

It’s 75 here in Fort Worth today! Absolutely beautiful. Seems like we’re expected to see highs in the 70s through Thursday, with rain (and thunderstorms) returning Friday.

Tornado confirmed near Coldspring, TX, per tornado warning text and KHOU livestream. EDIT: spotter-confirmed.

I agree. The center of the eye looks to be onshore now.

I noticed a Flash Flood Warning for east-central Ventura County, issued at 420 PM PDT, that mentioned rockslides and mudslides along California Route 150. Obviously, Hilary's precipitation alone can do this, but shaking saturated ground could trigger slides when they might not otherwise occur.

15/8/4

The orientation of the coastline in the Sittwe area definitely has me concerned about locally-enhanced storm surge. Mocha's strength and motion, along with the overall orientation of the coastline, are reminding me of Hurricane Ian, although there are great differences in topography (notice the hills and mountains running parallel to the coast). Those lowlands are in big trouble. I've extremely concerned about any humanitarian crisis that will follow Mocha's landfall. EDIT: it looks like I'm not too far off with respect to the highlighted area of concern, at least according to this forecast.

If at least one of these storms can manage to turn supercellular, I wonder if it could become a concern for the DFW metro?

Might want to extend this thread into the 28th; we have another severe thunderstorm threat on Friday it seems. (cheese007 made the edits while I was posting this) SPC is mentioning a large hail threat (30% hatched, hence the ENH), along with some tornado potential especially in north TX if storms don't get undercut (currently 5% on the outlook). DFW dodged a bullet yesterday (4/26), so we'll have to see if we can do it again tomorrow (4/28) or if our luck will run out; I know some of the model runs in the run-up to yesterday were showing the activity closer to and over DFW. I always get a little concerned when there's a localized severe storm threat centered on DFW.

Possible rotation trying to form in the Newark and Rhome areas? Seems like the Tarrant/Denton county line needs to be watched very closely just in case.

There's a severe-warned storm along the US 59 corridor NE of Victoria and SW of Houston (near Edna) that looks ready to take advantage of the warm sector.

Although (obviously) I expect the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms to be east of DFW, I am starting to wonder about our risk on Monday. We are on the edge of the outlined D4 risk after all, and recent Euro (12z) and GFS (12z; waiting on the 18z) runs suggest the potential for a severe risk around noon; obviously this time frame can change! While morning severe is unusual, after the December 13th tornadoes I'm a little more alert to things like that.

This is a concerning situation for areas in southern Decatur and south of Decatur.

Oh boy… that’s a concerning looking rotation signature (and possible debris signature?) near the I-20/US-281 interchange. EDIT: Confirmed/observed tornado. Hopefully no one is trying to travel on I-20 in SE Palo Pinto and western Parker counties right now.

Also there’s three tornado warnings west of DFW now. I’m in central Fort Worth and I’m starting to wonder about that southernmost cell possibly becoming a problem at my location later this morning; I’m expecting the Palo Pinto (central) cell to pass to my north. EDIT: that rotational signature north of Gorman, on the southernmost cell, is looking quite concerning. EDIT 2: might this be a debris signature on the correlation coefficient? I can’t tell completely, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.