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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter
  2. olafminesaw
    Is this the new banter thread?
  3. olafminesaw
    Changeover cometh
  4. olafminesaw
    Definitely seems to be trending towards more sleet
  5. olafminesaw
    Hard to believe it will flip to sleet in a couple hours after the dewpoint dropped to 8 before onset
  6. olafminesaw
    Yeah, we've seen this play out on the models. A shift to the south initially has sometimes resulted in a more inland track. Just depends on how our pesky vortex to the North behaves
  7. olafminesaw
    If I were a betting man, I'd bet on higher sleet totals and lower qpf, leading to only .1-.2" acreation in the triad
  8. olafminesaw
    Hate to see the depth of the wedge become shallower, I think as the storm track has trended somewhat more inland. I'm starting to doubt that many will see more sleet than ZR, but it's kinda a coin flip at this point
  9. olafminesaw
    The air that eventually will be bleeding down into NC is pretty stout:
  10. olafminesaw
    Storm summed up in one sounding. If this ain't sleet, it sure is close
  11. olafminesaw
    More or less from S to N.
  12. olafminesaw
    Still a nice front end thump on the HRRR, FWIW for central NC
  13. olafminesaw
    A lot of that qpf falls as sleet, so Greensboro might be 2" (.2 qpf) of snow followed by 2" sleet (.6 qpf) followed by .16 zr (.3 qpf-accounting for run-off). But snow/sleet depth after compaction would only be around 3"
  14. olafminesaw
    Good rates. One can dream the long range HRRR had any validity
  15. olafminesaw
    Can you spot the wedge?
  16. olafminesaw
    Activity will pick up. We're in the in between, where models are pretty locked in, but we're not yet now casting (radar hallucinations and hyperventilating over every HRRR run). I do think the prospect of 2" of sleet is pretty exciting TBH
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems based on research, that heavy sleet accumulations are rare in NC. February 1987 is a prime example, where up to 6" of sleet fell in Wake county. A very similar setup to this one too, based on the charts in this paper: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA250184
  18. olafminesaw
    It's a bit confusing, but as I understand it, FV3 refers to a trial version of the model. So every time they're working on an upgrade, they'll release both the old and new versions at the same time and eventually make FV3 operational. What I assume is being discussed is the WRF FV3 that shows on pivotal weather. I believe this is a trial version (hence FV3) of a high resolution GFS model
  19. olafminesaw
    Our trough that will become the primary low is now over the Northern plains
  20. olafminesaw
    Supposed to be like the hires NAM but run off the GFS. I've found it to be straight trash
  21. olafminesaw
    True, although I suspect heavier bands of precip will fall as sleet. FRAM for comparison
  22. olafminesaw
    Looks about how I think this will shake out. Although I would cut freezing rain acreation in the jackpot zones in half
  23. olafminesaw
    The RGEM runs the low directly over Raleigh, lol
  24. olafminesaw
    Crazy how the mesos bring the zr line all the way down to Myrtle at the onset, but yet the triad flips to sleet almost immediately
  25. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I almost feel like the surface low being further south initially, hurts the potential for a good initial thump for those of us north of 40
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