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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Pretty shocking that SC has surpassed GA in outages
  2. olafminesaw
    Storm of the Century vibes
  3. olafminesaw
    I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4
  4. olafminesaw
    In terms of reducing the populated areas affected by 12'+surge, the current NHC track is ideal. Not a ton of populated towns East of track. ST Mark's is the potential exception as they are right on the cusp either way
  5. olafminesaw
    Hard to believe this thing is in the southern Gulf right now and will be right on top of our region 24 hours from now. Especially after Debby's crawl towards the coast
  6. olafminesaw
    Solar min doing it's work. I wonder if the storm will maintain some level of asymmetry through landfall. Large systems have a hard time mixing out dry air entirely sometimes.
  7. olafminesaw
    Have to watch these cells on the east side of the storm for quick spinups on Friday
  8. olafminesaw
    i don't know anything about this model output, but I believe it is what the NWS bases their forecast on https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge/index.php?R=CONUS&S=Helene2024&Adv=9&Ty=e10&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Mp=Street&Z=5&Lt=34.823193&Lg=-79.693886&Help=about
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    Worth noting there his a high degree of forecast error possible after landfall, in terms of track and wind, due to the complex interaction with the ULL as well as poor forecast accuracy related strength and placement of ULLs to begin with.
  11. olafminesaw
    Follow the convergence for a rough idea of where the highest impact will occur.
  12. olafminesaw
    Shrimpy West Pacifjc vibes.
  13. olafminesaw
    BTW, how appropriate a user name. This well could be NC's Joaquin!
  14. olafminesaw
    The Southern Apps are going to be to a degree ground zero regardless just from Orographic lift. As well as the convergence the mountains provide with the ULL. It's possible the "wealth" could be spread around a bit more and places like Ashville end up with less than forecast. But somewhere in the higher elevations is getting double digit rainfall. No doubt about it.
  15. olafminesaw
    The HWRF has a good handle on it's deepening
  16. olafminesaw
    Cedar key seems to be in the cross hairs for surge. Was reading about the natural sea barrier that fared well during Idelia. But that was only a 6.8 ft surge https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2023/12/01/cedar-key-hurricane-idalia-living-shoreline-storm-surge-erosion-florida-sea-grant/
  17. olafminesaw
    I think winds are a big concern for the higher elevations of the southern Apps, even if Helene is not as strong as some of the models sugguest at landfall. I am hopeful that winds will have lost their punch by the time they get to the Northern Piedmont
  18. olafminesaw
    In theory yes, but at this stage shifts to the right increase the chance for surge to be a significant threat for Eastern Florida. A landfall even as far north as Cedar key would be really bad for the Tampa area.
  19. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro is still quite weak entering the gulf
  20. olafminesaw
    Thanks! This makes sense, early in the month the SE ridge is more likely to have influence. On models there seems to be a persistent trough off the east coast that is likely to pull the system more to the right.
  21. olafminesaw
    Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    It gets pulled by the trough off the east coast, which is anonymously far south. Also no ridging to stop it from recurving.
  24. olafminesaw
    It seems to me the inhibiting factor for development could be the broad circulation may have trouble tightening. This seems to be why the GFS has a very large hurricane, while the Euro has shown on several runs a broad area of low pressure that never develops despite reasonably favorable conditions.
  25. olafminesaw
    I-85 is lava. Seems mid-level dry air should keep rain totals in check for the triad. The HRRR depicts this well, with around .5" and 1-2" just to our south.
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