BOX is unimpressed for snow.
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Our active and progressive weather pattern continues during this period as we see a ridge of high pressure briefly bring a quiet and dry period of weather for Wednesday before another winter weather system arrives Wednesday night. This storm starts as a low pressure over the Midwest Wednesday afternoon before it moves into NY/PA Wednesday night, generating a secondary low along the frontal boundary off the mid Atlantic coast overnight into Thursday. Precipitation arrives in western MA and CT after sunset Wednesday associated with the warm frontextending from the parent low. Given this timing we`re not expecting an impact to the Wednesday evening commute. Temperatures through the column may be initially cold enough for this to start off as snow for some, though there remains much uncertainty as to the timing/details of this dynamic mixed precipitation event. There is high confidence in a stout warm nose around 800 mb which will produce sleet and freezing rain, eventually changing to rain. The low confidence comes with how quickly that warm nose moves in. The faster guidance would allow very little time for any snow, while the slower global guidance keeps precipitation as snow for several hours before flipping over. We are just getting into the window of the higher resolution guidance, and for now we`ll stick with a blend of the two solutions, with some minimal snowfall accumulations at the onset, northwest of the I-95 corridor, then flipping to sleet and freezing rain. Best shot at a few inches of snow will be for northern MA. Of greater concern for travel interests during Thursday morning`s commute will be the icy precipitation (sleet/freezing rain). For areas south and east of I- 95 a mostly rain solution is favored. Eventually the dry slot moves overhead Thursday morning bringing an end to precipitation by afternoon. After widespread highs in the 40s on Wednesday we`ll be cooler for most on Thursday. Given the path of the low, it will direct cold north/northeasterly flow into southern New England as it passes on Thursday so the warmest part of the day will be early, with colder air funneling in during the afternoon. Highs will be coldest in northern MA and warmest along the south coast. &&
.png.2082198afdafcedf9ad03f1d6dfb7336.png)
.thumb.png.4150b06c63a21f61052e47a612bf1818.png)
Yeah, I just saw that toggling 18z and 0z. Baby steps. Definitely lays down several inches along Rt2 corridor.
