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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Across the NC mtns and higher elevations of the Upstate and NE GA, snow will be the main p-type, where a few inches are possible across the srn escarpment and lower totals to the north. A lot can change with this system and the fcst will be adjusted over the next few days. One to keep an eye on. NWS seems to think the higher elevations will be ok.(excerpt from their afternoon discussion) Looking at the 12z GFS soundings, they show a very thin layer around 800mb above freezing up that way.
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I have to agree here. History would tell you that the CMC is better in these situations while the Euro doesn't handle the Cad as well.... I would not get too concerned about the Euro in this instance. As a side note, once we get into NAM range, it will tell us all we need to know about the thermal structure.
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, he's over on the other forum.
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    They removed it from the forecast, but GSP has a pretty good discussion about it this morning. The 12z suite today will be telling. If today's trends are not in our favor, it may be time to let this one go.
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Meh.... let's see what the Euro has to say.
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Speaking of Antarctica ..... "Ice extent is now well above the 1981 to 2020 median extent. This follows a remarkable transition from generally below median extent beginning in August 2016 to well above median extent just in the seven weeks preceding October 1, 2020". Why are we seeing the shift from near record low extent in the north, to near record high extent in the south? If this is a "global" issue, someone please explain the anomaly with Antarctic ice extent.
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    We will get that look in November of 2020 and again in April of 2021.We can't buy a -NAO in the heart of winter.
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    06Z OP run doesn't agree with the ensembles.... it's probably a blip.
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Here we go....
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If that's true, why have the past several winters been so benign?
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If only we had the technology on a global scale to convert this additional OHC into usable energy. I am sure some think-tank is already working on it.
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    At around 2:30, you can see large debris being lofted. This is clearly a large tornado, and that descending motion is real. Horizontal vortexes are not uncommon with well developed tornadoes.
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Welcome back home man. We have missed ya.
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    It's not only the energy from the state change, it's also the reflected energy that we are losing. Open water will suck up all the sun's energy. It does't look good for any recovery that we all hoped would happen. September better hurry up and get here.
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Robert was our go-to Met on this board for many years. He is excellent with winter weather in our part of the world. However, I really wasn't into severe weather back then. So, I can't comment on his severe forecast, but I would not bet against it right now.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If things stay the same, I expect we'll see a high risk with this one. The SPC day 1 criteria for high risk (45% with sig severe) would be reached.
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Looks like a doorway to the underworld.... scary stuff.
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    The FV3's track for the storm was spot on for a week out. Almost unheard of. It did not get the thermals exactly right but hey, for it to be that close at that range is great to see. I would give it a solid A
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    01z RAP loves the upstate of SC
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    HRRR has it more west....
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nam doesn't like the foothills or western Piedmont....
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Of course, if you already have snow on the ground. If you don't have a snow cover, it will be rate dependent.
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    A-1 sauce goes better with shoe
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That model is only for 18 hours out
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That line is not oriented in the right direction to rob us. Plenty of QPF coming.
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