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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If the MJO is in phase 4,5 or 6 during February, then you can forget about it being cold. That is pretty much guaranteed in a La Nina.
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, was just looking at that. Looks like the model is starting to come around.
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nope, it's just the GFS being clueless. I will not even look at it until we are 72 hours out (been burned too many times). Not saying that the Euro solution will play out, just not buying into the GFS. Remember it was the Euro / UK solution that led the way over the GFS on our Dec non-event and that combo looks pretty good right now.... stay tuned.
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Only one problem ..... Februarys in a La Nina year typically mean torch city. So, if you are going to punt all of January, might as well punt February too....... Oh, and just food for thought, punting the entire winter on the second day of January is not a wise move. We are all sore about the bitter cold in December with nothing to show for it, however there will still be more chances.
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, with a SSW / PV disruption, you don't know where the cold air will end up. It has hit the east coast in times past and then again, it has only effected the plain states. The only thing you can count on is that cold air will become dislodged and come south. Other than that, it's a crap-shoot.
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Maybe we can squeeze something in there between those warm-ups.
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, it's at that "watch the trends" stage right now. However, I believe the higher elevations certainly have a shot with this one.
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    You are not serious ...... the skis resorts have a deep base right now and they will survive a couple of weeks warmer weather just fine. I promise you that there is plenty of winter to come.
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Good work, thanks for taking the time to do this research. Looking forward to verification.
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Not true.... pattern looks to re-load 2nd week of Jan.
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Down to 10 degrees and still dropping slowly.
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Right behind you at 13 degrees here. I estimate at least 5 degrees or lower for a low.
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Mount Mitchel currently -11.8. Now that's cold.
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Mount Mitchel down to 5 degrees F and falling fast.
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    You will be back in here .... as soon as there is a winter storm thread.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I agree .... I would let the smoke clear with this FROPA, then see what happens.
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Hey, I have seen it work before..... never hurts to hope.
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, I am just not feeling good about this one. Once the north trend commences, it rarely trends back south. However, I could be wrong.
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Tell me about it.... Looks bad
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Was on Beech Mtn earlier this afternoon. Plenty of rime ice on the trees, clear, windy and temps in the mid 20's. It was beautiful......Snow guns were cranking too.
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Already down to 35 degrees on Mt Mitchell.
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Isn't there a correlation between a warn October and a cold winter? Seems like you mentioned some supporting data years ago...... or maybe I read it somewhere. I am getting old you know.
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yep, and when it starts it will continue up until verification time. Question is.... how far will it get?
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    32 degrees here and drizzle with a stiff breeze.
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, I think I will just wait until the Hrrr gets into range and go from there. Right now it's a coin toss.
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