CAD_Wedge_NC

Good points.... and the answer is we don't know how reliable the NAM will be. I am more apt to trust the Euro in this case. Time will tell...

GFS caving to the Euro.... what a surprise.

Let's all hope the Euro has a better handle on things. If it holds serve over the next 24 hours, I will say that it's solution is believable. Right now, the GFSfv 500mb depiction (trough too far east) would suggest a wedge/damming event, meaning more of a freezing rain/sleet type of event. I would like to see that work itself out in the next several runs. If this is going to be a major snow event, we will more than likely know in the next couple of days. Once we are within 72 hours, the chances of big swings are drastically reduced. Right now we hug the Euro....

This will be a good test for it. Right now (18z) it shows an apps runner while the 12z Euro shows a miller A. Will the Euro cave?

I agree with you at this point. In order for us to score with this one, there needs to be more damming or a weaker system. An amped up storm with lots of qpf will not give us a winter storm with this pattern. Can it look better come game-time? yes but it's not what we want just yet.

Need to head south down 85 and pick up Mac first. He needs to spend a day riding the bus.

I believe the difference is that the low is more amped up and 3mb lower in pressure. It's not as progressive. All that waa doesn't allow the confluence to remain in place, That could spell trouble for snow-lovers.

Thing that I find most alarming is the amount of liquid equivalent with this storm. Notice the increase from this morning's run....

Yep, the pattern looks a lot more favorable now that the GL low is no longer in play. Looks like a true miller A type storm incoming. I am still a little concerned with surface/850 temps, but as has been mentioned in previous posts, the confluence in the northeast is stout and should allow surface and 850 temps to trend colder as we approach the event. Now we wait to see how the trends develop over the next few days. Once we get inside the NAM's wheelhouse, we will get a better idea on thermal profiles. Until then, let's enjoy the tracking.

Well the disclaimer states that due to the shutdown some runs may have missing panels or the model may be late.

I hang out in this forum as well because the MA folks do great when it comes to pattern recognition.... and yes, we can both score on the right pattern, if there is a coastal miller A that rides all the way up.

Yes, it's much better than the crappy pattern we have been in. Let the fun and games begin.

Yep, sure looks good right now. Noticed that we lost the Great Lakes low from last run. Mac will be happy.

Per web cams, it looks like Boone is changing over now.

You could not draw a better 500mb map if you were asked to do so That map is a thing of beauty! I agree, that has a snow look for many in the east.

Think it will be getting cold sooner than that. Latest runs are indicating around the 15th.

Models are have a tough time figuring out what the MJO is going to do. That's why we have differences between the big three. I am leaning towards the American camp with a slight nod/wish to the CMC. The Euro is out to lunch with regards to the MJO. Look for big changes when it all gets sorted out.

MJO says "I am the ruler right now" "Winter starts when I say so."

The last thing we need is evolution of the NWS. We just want timely forecasts and unbiased discussions. Stay with what's working! As the old saying goes .... if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Wow, didn't realize that it dumped that much. Good to see the ski industries in full swing. They deserve a good year after the December torches they have had to endure in past years.

I see that you are back to your old self, now that all your snow has melted.

Seen it happen before......

No, No, ..... don't retire the AFD's. We all look forward to reading your thoughts.

I was thinking the same thing.... Still have some snow piles left, but if it wasn't for that, you would have never known that it snowed last week. That's December climo for you..... similar to March.

What are you talking about???